Report Highlights

In 2008, China's bond market was in its prime, thanks to a host of favorable factors. CPI index lingered on a high level in the first half year, and then started to fall in May until the end of the year. Monetary policy was gradually loosened. In the second and third quarters, there were notable expectations for interest rate reductions. In the fourth quarter, the People's Bank of China repeatedly introduced policy of cutting interest rates. In 2008, while the stock market was sluggish, bonds became investors' haven. The CSI Aggregate Bond Index rose from 118.1034 points in the beginning of the year to 129.9302 in early December, with a return on investment of more than 10%. Main bond products' yield curve fell sharply, especially in Q4. Trading value totaled 98.9 trillion yuan in the bond market for the year, up 55.6% year on year.

In 2008, the total amount of bonds issued was 6.9 trillion yuan, with a YOY drop of 12.7%, largely attributable to a YOY decrease in treasury bond issue. The amount of treasury bonds issued was 708.5 billion yuan, financial bonds 1.2 trillion yuan, corporate bonds 249.3 billion yuan, and central bank notes 4.3 trillion yuan. Central bank notes, treasury bonds, and policy-related financial bonds remained main products in the primary market. In 2009, under the impact of unfavorable external environment, the Chinese economy faces the risk of a slump. There are uncertainties in the economic situation and regulation policy, and bull and bear factors that shape the bond market are wrangling in a subtle manner...

In the face of changes in the economic situation and ups and downs in the securities market, we release the 2008-2009 Annual Report on China's Bond Market, which helps securities companies, investors and industry insiders grasp accurately laws governing the market's development, identify its development direction, and examine the migration track of investment value.
* All-round and in-depth analysis of macroeconomic situation: On the basis of GDP, CPI and PPI curves, the report probes factors affecting economic fluctuations and phase characteristics; sums up macro regulation policies introduced in 2008, and interprets the background and effect of the policies.
* In-depth, full and accurate research data: The report tracks the development of the monetary market in 2008, and examines changes in interest rates. Through price-volume market analysis method, with bond price, amount of funds raised, bond issuance, and trading value of bonds as core indexes, we depict key bond products separately, and presents the latest data on the indexes.
* Scientific and complete forecasts: we conduct regression modeling and expert verification of major market segments, and examines relevant external factors, deriving valuable trend analysis and quantitative forecast results.