Pharmaceutical Company Outlook to 2013

Introduction

PharmaVitae universe Rx sales are forecast to expand at a 2007-13 CAGR of 2.4%, down 7.6 percentage points from 2001-07. The underlying cause of this falling rate is the much-discussed genericization of small molecule products. However, not all sectors are equally exposed, prompting a shake-up of the industry and an increasing pursuit of cost savings to sustain operating profit growth rates.

Scope

*Analysis of the sales outlook for the PharmaVitae universe of leading prescription pharma companies to 2013
*Assessment of the impact of future launches and patent expiries on sales growth compared to historical trends
*Segmentation of the market by therapy area and molecule type to assess high- and low-growth sectors of the industry
*Assessment of the impact of cost-cutting on operating profit growth in an environment of low and sometimes negative sales growth

Highlights

*The increasing assault of generics on leading pharma players' staple diet of small molecule products will prompt a shake-up of the industry. Companies' success will be heavily linked to their exposure to this generic threat, with biologics and niche players enjoying the greatest insulation and therefore often the highest growth.

*Many companies not in these hot sectors of the industry will be compelled to pursue cost-cutting to maintain previous levels of operating profit growth and some may resort to M&A activity to bolster sales performance and/or strategically realign themselves.

*However, recourse to M&A should not be surprising when looked at in the historical context, as this has already acted as the PharmaVitae universe's primary growth driver in the period between 2001 and 2007, accounting for a greater proportion of growth than internal R&D operations.

Reasons to Purchase

*Gain a true understanding of the threats facing the pharmaceutical industry's sales performance and which sectors will be most heavily impacted
*Assess the effectiveness of cost-cutting programs on operating profit performance in a period of low sales growth
*Evaluate the impact of M&A on companies' historical performance and see how low top-line sales growth could prompt a further wave of consolidation

Report Outline

CHAPTER 1 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

Key findings
Introduction to the PharmaVitae Universe
Industry coverage of the PharmaVitae Universe
The PharmaVitae forecast database
The PharmaVitae peer sets
PharmaVitae operating cost and profit forecasts
Strategic overview of the PharmaVitae Universe to 2013
Overview of the PharmaVitae Universe outlook to 2013
The company outlook to 2013
PharmaVitae Universe launch/core/expiry analysis
PharmaVitae Universe molecule type analysis
PharmaVitae Universe M&A analysis
PharmaVitae Universe operating performance analysis

CHAPTER 2 THE BIG PHARMA OUTLOOK TO 2013

Key findings
Overview of Big Pharma to 2013
Big Pharma Rx pharma sales performance, 2001-13
Big Pharma landscape, 2007-13
Big Pharma company analysis
Big Pharma company sales, 2007
Big Pharma company sales outlook, 2007-13
Big Pharma launch/core/expiry analysis
Big Pharma therapy area analysis
Big Pharma molecule type analysis
Big Pharma operating performance analysis

CHAPTER 3 THE MID PHARMA OUTLOOK TO 2013

Key findings
Overview of Mid Pharma to 2013
Mid Pharma Rx pharma sales performance, 2001-13
Mid Pharma landscape, 2007-13
Mid Pharma company analysis
Mid Pharma launch/core/expiry analysis
Mid Pharma therapy area analysis
Mid Pharma molecule type analysis
Mid Pharma operating performance analysis

CHAPTER 4 THE BIOTECH OUTLOOK TO 2013

Key findings
Overview of Biotech to 2013
Biotech Rx pharma sales performance, 2001-13
Biotech landscape, 2007-13
Biotech company analysis
Biotech launch/core/expiry analysis
Biotech therapy area analysis
Biotech molecule type analysis
Biotech operating performance analysis

CHAPTER 5 THE JAPAN PHARMA OUTLOOK TO 2013

Key findings
Overview of Japan Pharma to 2013
Japan Pharma Rx pharma sales performance, 2001-13
Japan Pharma landscape, 2007-13
Japan Pharma company analysis
Japan Pharma launch/core/expiry analysis
Japan Pharma therapy area analysis
Japan Pharma molecule type analysis

CHAPTER 6 APPENDIX

References
reports
Other references
General references
Abbreviations
Exchange rates

List of Tables

Table 1: Strategic overview of the PharmaVitae Universe, 2007-13
Table 2: PharmaVitae Universe overview by peer set, 2007-13
Table 3: Launch/core/expiry analysis (percentage of 2001 sales), 2001-07
Table 4: Launch/core/expiry analysis (percentage of 2007 sales), 2007-13
Table 5: PharmaVitae Universe operating performance ($ billion), 2007-13
Table 6: Big Pharma peer set overview, 2007-13
Table 7: Big Pharma launch/core/expiry portfolios, 2007-13
Table 8: Mid Pharma peer set overview, 2007-13
Table 9: Mid Pharma launch/core/expiry portfolios, 2007-13
Table 10: Biotech peer set overview, 2007-13
Table 11: Biotech launch/core/expiry portfolios, 2007-13
Table 12: Japan Pharma peer set overview, 2007-13
Table 13: Japan Pharma launch/core/expiry portfolios, 2007-13
Table 14: Exchange rates, 2007

List of Figures

Figure 1: PharmaVitae Universe Rx sales ($bn) and year-on-year growth rate (%), 2001-13
Figure 2: PharmaVitae Universe Rx sales ($bn) by company, 2007
Figure 3: PharmaVitae Universe Rx sales CAGR (%) by company, 2007-13
Figure 4: PharmaVitae Universe Rx sales ($bn) by company, 2013
Figure 5: PharmaVitae Universe launch/core/expiry analysis, change in sales ($bn), 2001-07 and 2007-13
Figure 6: PharmaVitae Universe launch/core/expiry analysis, change in sales (% 2007) by peer set, 2007-13
Figure 7: PharmaVitae Universe launch/core/expiry analysis, change in sales (% 2007) by company, 2007-13
Figure 8: PharmaVitae Universe Rx sales ($bn) by molecule type, 2001-13
Figure 9: PharmaVitae Universe Rx sales growth ($bn) by molecule type, 2007-13
Figure 10: PharmaVitae Universe company-by-company Rx sales growth ($bn) by molecule type, 2007-13
Figure 11: PharmaVitae Universe Rx sales growth ($bn) by source, 2001-07
Figure 12: PharmaVitae Universe operating performance ($bn), 2001-13
Figure 13: PharmaVitae Universe operating performance (% total sales), 2001-13
Figure 14: PharmaVitae Universe operating profit growth drivers ($bn), sales vs. operating costs, 2001-07 and 2007-13
Figure 15: Big Pharma peer set Rx sales and growth rate, 2001-13
Figure 16: Big Pharma peer set landscape, 2007-13
Figure 17: Big Pharma peer set companies, Rx sales ($m), 2007
Figure 18: Big Pharma peer set companies, Rx sales CAGR (%), 2007-13
Figure 19: Big Pharma peer set companies, Rx sales ($bn), 2007-13
Figure 20: Big Pharma peer set companies, Rx sales ($m), 2013
Figure 21: Big Pharma peer set growth by source of product ($m), 2001-07
Figure 22: Big Pharma peer set launch/core/expiry, 2001-13
Figure 23: Big Pharma companies launch/core/expiry ($bn), 2007-13
Figure 24: Big Pharma companies launch/core/expiry (percentage of 2007 Rx sales), 2007-13
Figure 25: Big Pharma peer set, therapy area focus, 2001-13
Figure 26: Big Pharma company sales by therapy area ($m), 2007
Figure 27: Big Pharma company sales by therapy area ($m), 2013
Figure 28: Big Pharma peer set, molecule type focus, 2001-13
Figure 29: Big Pharma peer set growth by molecule type, 2007-13
Figure 30: Big Pharma companies molecule type focus (% Rx sales), 2007
Figure 31: Big Pharma companies, growth by molecule type, 2007-13
Figure 32: Big Pharma companies molecule type focus (% Rx sales), 2013
Figure 33: Big Pharma operating performance ($bn), 2001-13
Figure 34: Big Pharma operating performance (% total sales), 2001-13
Figure 35: Big Pharma companies operating performance ($m), 2007-13
Figure 36: Mid Pharma peer set Rx sales and growth rate, 2001-13
Figure 37: Mid Pharma peer set landscape, 2007-13
Figure 38: Mid Pharma peer set companies, Rx sales ($m), 2007
Figure 39: Mid Pharma peer set companies, Rx sales CAGR (%), 2007-13
Figure 40: Mid Pharma peer set companies, Rx sales ($bn), 2007-13
Figure 41: Mid Pharma peer set companies, Rx sales ($m), 2013
Figure 42: Mid Pharma peer set growth by source of product ($m), 2001-07
Figure 43: Mid Pharma peer set launch/core/expiry, 2001-13
Figure 44: Mid Pharma companies launch/core/expiry ($bn), 2007-13
Figure 45: Mid Pharma companies launch/core/expiry (percentage of 2007 Rx sales), 2007-13
Figure 46: Mid Pharma peer set, therapy area focus, 2001-13
Figure 47: Mid Pharma company sales by therapy area ($m), 2007
Figure 48: Mid Pharma company sales by therapy area ($m), 2013
Figure 49: Mid Pharma peer set, molecule type focus, 2001-13
Figure 50: Mid Pharma peer set growth by molecule type, 2007-13
Figure 51: Mid Pharma companies molecule type focus (% Rx sales), 2007
Figure 52: Mid Pharma companies, growth by molecule type, 2007-13
Figure 53: Mid Pharma companies molecule type focus (% Rx sales), 2013
Figure 54: Mid Pharma operating performance ($bn), 2001-13
Figure 55: Mid Pharma operating performance (% total sales), 2001-13
Figure 56: Mid Pharma companies operating performance ($m), 2007-13
Figure 57: Biotech peer set Rx sales and growth rate, 2001-13
Figure 58: Biotech peer set landscape, 2007-13
Figure 59: Biotech peer set companies, Rx sales ($m), 2007
Figure 60: Biotech peer set companies, Rx sales CAGR (%), 2007-13
Figure 61: Biotech peer set companies, Rx sales ($bn), 2007-13
Figure 62: Biotech peer set companies, Rx sales ($m), 2013
Figure 63: Biotech peer set growth by source of product ($m), 2001-07
Figure 64: Biotech peer set launch/core/expiry, 2001-13
Figure 65: Biotech companies launch/core/expiry ($bn), 2007-13
Figure 66: Biotech companies launch/core/expiry (percentage of 2007 Rx sales), 2007-13
Figure 67: Biotech peer set, therapy area focus, 2001-13
Figure 68: Biotech company sales by therapy area ($m), 2007
Figure 69: Biotech company sales by therapy area ($m), 2013
Figure 70: Biotech peer set, molecule type focus, 2001-13
Figure 71: Biotech peer set growth by molecule type, 2007-13
Figure 72: Biotech companies molecule type focus (% Rx sales), 2007
Figure 73: Biotech companies, growth by molecule type, 2007-13
Figure 74: Biotech companies molecule type focus (% Rx sales), 2013
Figure 75: Biotech operating performance ($bn), 2001-13
Figure 76: Biotech operating performance (% total sales), 2001-13
Figure 77: Biotech companies operating performance ($m), 2007-13
Figure 78: Japan Pharma peer set Rx sales and growth rate, 2001-13
Figure 79: Japan Pharma peer set landscape, 2007-13
Figure 80: Japan Pharma peer set companies, Rx sales ($m), 2007
Figure 81: Japan Pharma peer set companies, Rx sales CAGR (%), 2007-13
Figure 82: Japan Pharma peer set companies, Rx sales ($bn), 2007-13
Figure 83: Japan Pharma peer set companies, Rx sales ($m), 2013
Figure 84: Japan Pharma peer set growth by source of product ($m), 2001-07
Figure 85: Japan Pharma peer set launch/core/expiry, 2001-13
Figure 86: Japan Pharma companies launch/core/expiry ($bn), 2007-13
Figure 87: Japan Pharma companies launch/core/expiry (percentage of 2007 Rx sales), 2007-13
Figure 88: Japan Pharma peer set, therapy area focus, 2001-13
Figure 89: Japan Pharma company sales by therapy area ($m), 2007
Figure 90: Japan Pharma company sales by therapy area ($m), 2013
Figure 91: Japan Pharma peer set, molecule type focus, 2001-13
Figure 92: Japan Pharma peer set growth by molecule type, 2007-13
Figure 93: Japan Pharma companies molecule type focus (% Rx sales), 2007
Figure 94: Japan Pharma companies, growth by molecule type, 2007-13
Figure 95: Japan Pharma companies molecule type focus (% Rx sales), 2013

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