2005-2006 China Dairy Market Review & Outlook

http://www.chinaccm.com 2006-2-7 10:22

Report TITle:              2005-2006 China Dairy Market Review & Outlook
Published Date:        Feb,2006
Format:                       Hard Copy
Price:                          1500 US dollars

Research Background

In 2005 Chinese Dairy Industry maintained a high growth, its oPEration became better compared with 2004. As to production of milk source, dairy cattle inventory and raw milk production both inCReased over 20%. Dairy cattle and raw milk all endured a price correction period, and dairy cattle industry returned to normal development from overheated development in the last few years. Dairy cattle import obviously fell, affected by diseases abroad.

As to processing of dairy products, sale volume of dairy enterprises in the first three quarters of 2005 reached 61.6 billion yuan, up 31% from same period 2004; annual sale volume is estimated to be near 80 billion yuan, up 25% from same period 2004, slightly lower than last year's level. Gross profit of dairy industry in the first three quarters was 3 billion yuan, adding 21% over same period 2004; annual gross profit is projected to be 4 billion yuan, adding 18% over same period 2004, obviously higher than last year's increase rate of 10%. The industrial profit margin in the first three quarters exceeded 10% and is expected to be 8% for the whole year, higher than last year's level of 5.41%. New investment in 2005 was about 12 billion yuan, parallel to 2004.

As to import and export of dairy products, on the one hand, dairy products suPPly on international market declined and price remained high ESPecially New ZeaLANd where export price increased substantially; on the other hand, domestic demand for dairy products was weak while supply was abundant, in addition to Nestle event and Bright event, consumption market was blew, resulting in import decline especially the milk powder and export increase after recovery in last year.

As to consumption of dairy products, generally speaking, per capita consumption volume of urban citizens in over half proVINces saw negative growth, decreasing by near 3% all the year round. As to policy perspective, notice of "remade milk" label, released by State Council Office at the end of September, has greatly influenced and will continue influencing domestic dairy development.

This report analyzes dairy production, consumption, market price, BASic situation of import and export, market comPETition, relevant hot topics, policy direction and impact, development of main dairy processing and packaging enterprises in China and the development of the international dairy industry in 2005, there is ALSo a forecast for the development trend of the Chinese dairy industry in 2006.

This report is a joint product of the experts of the Dairy Department , its clients include many famous Chinese and foreign enterprises. The company has unique views on many hot issues in the development of the Chinese dairy industry and quite often, the views were reprinted by lots of mASS media.

The research report on the Chinese dairy industry in 2004 first added the "Balance Sheet of Milk" which is commonly aDOPted in the world. The research report on the Chinese dairy industry in 2005 will continue provide "Balance Sheet of Milk in China in 2005". This research report is based on the information from the National General Administration of Statistics, the National Economic Information Center, the Customs General Administration of China, the National Commercial Information Center, China Beverage Industrial Association, China Dairy Industrial Association, China Competition Intelligence Network, relevant papers of the country and overseas, and lots of data either published or supplied by research institutes of food and beverage, meanwhile, the database of the company was used, suRVeys and research results of the company were used as well.

This is a rare report which shall be of great value for dairy producers, dealers and research institutes both at home and abroad to understand the development trend of the dairy industry, to make decisions on the positioning of the enterprise and to formulate development strategies.

TABLE OF CONTENT

CHAPTER ONE
Status of Dairy Industry in 2005
1.1 Rapid Growth for Dairy Cattle Inventory and Slow Import
1.2 Quick Increase for Cow Milk Production
1.3 Growth for Production of Dairy Products Remained High but the Rate Slowed down
1.4 Import Decline and Export Soar of Dairy Products
1.5 Slow Increase for Dairy Consumption, Far behind Production Increase
1.6 Fierce Market Competition, Higher Concentration Ratio
1.7 Stable Retail Price for Fresh Milk
1.8 Rebound of Industrial Profit Margin

CHAPTER TWO
Production of Chinese Dairy Industry in 2005
2.1 Gross Production of Various Kinds of Milk and Cow Milk, Regional Layout 2005
2.2 Production of Dairy Products, Liquid Dairy and Solid Dairy Products
2.3 Production of Liquid Dairy
2.3.1 General Trend of Liquid Dairy Production
2.3.2 Monthly Trend of Liquid Dairy Production
2.3.3 Regional Layout of Liquid Dairy Production
2.3.4 Composition of Liquid Dairy
2.4 Production Situation of Solid Dairy Products
2.4.1 General Trend of Solid Dairy Products Production
2.4.2 Monthly Analysis of Solid Dairy Products Production
2.4.3 Regional Layout of Solid Dairy Products Production
2.4.4 Composition of Solid Dairy Products
2.4.5 Composition of Milk Powder

Chapter Three
Import and Export of Dairy Products in 2005
3.1 Overview of Import and Export of Dairy Products
3.2 Import of Dairy Products
3.2.1 Composition of Imported Dairy Products
3.2.2 Import of Milk Powder
3.2.3 Import of Whey Products
3.2.4 Import Origin of Dairy Products
3.2.5 Import Flow of Dairy Products
3.2.6 Monthly Situation of Dairy Products Import
3.3 Export of Dairy Products
3.3.1 Composition of Dairy Products Export
3.3.2 Exported MarkETS of Dairy Products
3.3.3 Provinces of Dairy Products Export

CHAPTER FOUR
Dairy Consumption in 2005
4.1 Gross Consumption of Dairy Products
4.2 Composition of Dairy Consumption in 2005
4.3 Consumption Regions of Dairy Products
4.4 Consumption Price of Dairy Products

CHAPTER FIVE
Market Competition in 2005
5.1 Status of Dairy Market Competition
5.1.1 Competition Features
5.1.2 Competition Situation of Various Kinds of Dairy Products
Milk Powder Market
Fresh Milk Market
Yogurt Market
Lactic Acid Bacteria Drinks
5.2 Regional Competition Situation
5.2.1 East China
5.2.2 South China
5.2.3 Central China
5.2.4 Southwest Region
5.2.5 Northeast Region
5.2.6 North China
5.2.7 Northwest Region

CHAPTER SIX
Analysis of Main Dairy Producers in 2005
6.1 Yili Group
6.1.1 Analysis of Business Revenue
6.1.2 Composition of Products
6.1.3 Status in Market Competition
6.1.4 Investments
6.1.5 Programming and Evaluation of Main Business in 2006
6.2 Bright Dairy
6.2.1 Analysis of Business Revenue
6.2.2 Composition of Products
6.2.3 Status in Market Competition
6.2.4 Investments
6.2.5 Prospect of Bright Dairy in 2006
6.3 MeNGNiu Group
6.3.1 Analysis of Business Revenue
6.3.2 Status in Market Competition
6.3.3 Prospect of Mengniu in 2006
6.4 Sanlu Group
6.4.1 Analysis of Business Revenue
6.4.2 Composition of Products
6.4.3 Status in Market Competition
6.4.4 Investments
6.4.5 Prospect of Sanlu in 2006
6.5 Sanyuan Food
6.5.1 Analysis of Business Revenue and Status in Market Competition
6.5.2 Composition of Dairy Products
6.5.3 Investments
6.5.4 Prospect of Sanyuan in 2006
6.6 Wondersun Dairy
6.6.1 Analysis of Business Revenue
6.6.2 Composition of Products
6.6.3 Status in Market Competition
6.6.4 Investments
6.6.5 Prospect of Wondersun in 2006
6.7 Nanjing Dairy Group
6.7.1 Analysis of Business Revenue
6.7.2 Composition of Products
6.7.3 Status in Market Competition
6.7.4 Investments
6.7.5 Prospect of Nanjing Dairy Group in 2006

6.8 Yinqiao Dairy
6.8.1 Analysis of Business Revenue
6.8.2 Composition of Products
6.8.3 Status in Market Competition
6.8.4 Investments
6.8.5 Prospect of Yinqiao Dairy in 2006
6.9 New Hope Dairy
6.9.1 Analysis of Business Revenue
6.9.2 Composition of Dairy Products
6.9.3 Status in Market Competition
6.9.4 Prospect of New Hope Dairy in 2006
6.10 VV Dairy
6.10.1 Analysis of Business Revenue
6.10.2 Composition of Dairy Products
6.10.3 Status in Market Competition
6.10.4 Investments
6.10.5 Prospect of VV Dairy in 2006
6.11 Nestle
6.11.1 Analysis of Business Revenue
6.11.2 Status in Market Competition
6.11.3 Investments
6.11.4 Prospect of Nestle in 2006
6.12 Dumex
6.12.1 Analysis of Business Revenue
6.12.2 Composition of Products
6.12.3 Status in Market Competition
6.12.4 Prospect of Dumex in 2006

CHAPTER SEVEN
Packaging Suppliers for Dairy Products in 2005
7.1 Tetra Pak
7.1.1 Investment in China
7.1.2 Cooperation with Dairy Producers, Government and Relative Industrial Association
7.1.3 Prospect of Tetra Pak's Business in China in 2006
7.2 International Paper
7.2.1 Investment in China
7.2.2 Cooperation with Dairy Producers
7.2.3 Prospect of International Paper's Business in China in 2006
7.3 Baili Pak
7.3.1 Investment in China
7.3.2 Cooperation with Dairy Producers
7.3.3 Prospect of Baili Pak's Business in China in 2006
7.4 Ecolean
7.4.1 Investment in China
7.4.2 Cooperation with Dairy Producers
7.4.3 Prospect of Ecolean's Business in China in 2006

CHAPTER EIGHT
In-depth Analysis of Data on Dairy Industry Development in 2005
8.1 Analysis of Economic Development Situation
8.2 Analysis of Operational Efficiency
8.3 Analysis of Profit-generation Ability
8.4 Sales and Profit of Dairy Industry in 2005
8.4.1 Sales Income of Dairy Industry
8.4.2 Analysis of Profit-generation Status of Dairy Industry of Different Regions
8.4.3 Analysis of Profit-generation Status of Dairy Enterprises of Different Scales

CHAPTER NINE
Development of International Dairy Industry in 2005
9.1 Development of International Dairy Industry in 2005
9.1.1 Overview
9.1.2 Markets of Various Dairy Products
9.1.2.1 Whole Powder
9.1.2.2 Skimmed Powder
9.1.2.3 Butter
9.1.2.4 Cheese
9.2 New Zealand Dairy and Products Annual 2005
9.2.1 General Situation
9.2.2 Production and Sales in 2005
9.3 Australia Dairy and Products Annual 2005
9.3.1 General Situation
9.3.2 Production and Sales in 2005
9.4 America Dairy and Products Annual 2005
9.5 EU Dairy and Products Annual 2005
9.5.1 General Situation
9.5.2 Production and Sales in 2005
9.6 India Dairy and Products Annual 2005
9.6.1 General Situation
9.6.2 Cow Milk Consumption
9.6.3 Cow Milk Trade
9.6.4 Market Chances of Dairy Products in India

CHAPTER TEN
Outlook of Dairy Industrial Development of China in 2006
10.1 Trend of Chinese Dairy Industry in 2006
10.2 Main Influential Factors

ANNEX£º
Annex One£ºBalance Sheet of Milk in China 2005
Annex Two£ºComments on Ten Events of Chinese Dairy Industry in 2005
Event One--Notice of Strengthening Production and Management of Liquid Milk Released by the State Council Brought Shock to China's Dairy Industry
Event Two--Nestle Milk Powder Event
Event Three--Bright Event of "Re-processed Dairy" and "Postdated Dairy"
Event Four--Yili Group Changed Directors, but Continues to be the leader of Dairy Industry in China
Event Five--Three International Consortiums and Some Shareholders in Management Layer Withdrew Their Shares from Mengniu
Event Six--Hohehot City Was Nominated as "China's Dairy Capital"
Event Seven--Xiajin Dairy Produced for Dairy Retail Magnates like Carrefour and Wal-mart with Their Brands and Marks
Event Eight--The Big Success of 2005 Mengniu Yugort Happy China Supergirl Roused an Upsurge of Domestic Dairy Marketing
Event Nine--China Laid more Restriction on Livestock Import, and Breeding Cattle Import Slowed Down
Event Ten--Sino-New Zealand Free Trade Agreement Negotiation is to be Continued

Table
Table 1-1 Dairy Import and Export in 2005
Table 1-2 Per Capita Dairy Consumption by Urban Residents, 2003-2005
Table 2-1 Milk Production, Dairy Cattle Inventory and Growths, 1999-2005
Table 2-2 Cow Milk Production in Beijing-Tianjin-Shanghai Region 1999-2005
Table 2-3 Outputs of Dairy Products of Various Places in 2005
Table 2-4 Liquid Milk Production by Regions 1999-2005
Table 2-5 Liquid Milk Production by Varieties 1999-2005
Table 2-6 Output of Solid Dairy Products by Regions 1999-2005
Table 2-7 Output of Solid Dairy Product by Varieties 1999-2005
Table 2-8 Output of Milk Powder 1990-2005
Table 2-9 Output of Milk Powder by Varieties 1999-2003
Table 3-1 Import of Dairy Product by Varieties 2003-2005
Table 3-2 Import of Powder by Duty Code
Table 3-3 Imported Volume and Value of Powder by Countries

Table 3-4 Imported Volume and Value of Powder by Regions
Table 3-5 Imported Volume and Value of Whey Products by Countries
Table 3-6 Source of Import of Dairy Products in 2005
Table 3-7 Import Value of Dairy Products of Various Places 2003-2005
Table 3-8 Exported Volume and Value of Dairy Products by Duty Codes
Table 3-9 Exported Volume and Value of Dairy Products to Different Countries 2003-2005
Table 3-10 Export Value of Dairy Products by Regions 2002-2005
Table 4-1 Per Capita Dairy Consumption by Urban Residents 1995-2005
Table 4-2 Per Capita Annual Dairy Consumption or Urban Residents 2003-2005
Table 4-3 Changes of Per Capita Dairy Consumption of the Four Cities Directly under the Central Government 2001-2005
Table 4-4 Top 10 Regions of Per Capita Fresh Dairy Consumption in 2005
Table 4-5 Top 10 Regions of Per Capita Powder Consumption in 2005 and Ranking
Table 4-6 Top 10 Regions of Per Capita Consumption of Yogurt in 2005 and Ranking
Table 8-1 Main Indicators of Economic Development of Dairy Industry 2003-2005
Table 8-2 Indicators of Asset Utilization Efficiency of Dairy Industry 2003-2005
Table 8-3 Indicators of Profit-generation Ability of Dairy Industry 2003-2005
Table 8-4 Sales Income of Dairy Industry 2003-2005
Table 8-5 Sales Income of Dairy Industry of Various Regions in 2005

Table 8-6 Comparison of Business Revenue of Dairy Enterprises of Different Scales in 2005
Table 8-7 Ranking of Enterprises Which Sales Income Was Over 300 Million Yuan in 2005
Table 8-8 Gross Profit of Dairy Industry of Various Places in 2005
Table 8-9 Ranking of Enterprises Which Profit Was Over 10 Million Yuan 2003-2005
Table 9-1 Milk Production in the World 2001-2005 (based on different dairy animals)
Table 9-2 Milk Production in the World in 2005 (based on countries)
Table 9-3 Production of Whole Powder of Main Countries in 2005
Table 9-4 Production of Skimmed Powder of Main Countries in 2005
Table 9-5 Production of Butter and Ghee of Main Countries in 2005
Table 9-6 Production of Cheese of Main Countries in 2005
Table 9-7 Comparison of Domestic Dairy Delivery Price of Main Producing Countries 2004-2005
Table 9-8 Balance Sheet of Liquid Dairy in New Zealand 2004-2006
Table 9-9 Balance Sheet of Cheese in New Zealand 2004-2006
Table 9-10 Export Flow of Cheese of New Zealand 2002-2005
Table 9-11 Balance Sheet of Butter in New Zealand 2004-2006
Table 9-12 Export Flow of Butter of New Zealand 2002-2005
Table 9-13 Balance Sheet of Skimmed Powder in New Zealand 2004-2006
Table 9-14 Export Flow of Skimmed Powder of New Zealand 2002-2005
Table 9-15 Balance Sheet of Whole Powder in New Zealand 2004-2006

Table 9-16 Export Flow of Whole Powder in New Zealand 2002-2005
Table 9-17 Balance Sheet of Various Kinds of Milk in Australia 2004-2006
Table 9-18 Balance Sheet of Cheese in Australia 2004-2006
Table 9-19 Balance Sheet of Butter in Australia 2004-2006
Table 9-20 Balance Sheet of Whole Powder in Australia 2004-2006
Table 9-21 Balance Sheet of Skimmed Powder in Australia 2004-2006
Table 9-22 Dairy Cattle Inventory and Cow Milk Output in America in 2005
Table 9-23 Balance Sheet of Various Kinds of Milk in EU 2003-2005
Table 9-24 Balance Sheet of Cheese in EU 2003-2005
Table 9-25 Balance Sheet of Butter in EU 2003-2005
Table 9-26 Balance Sheet of Whole Powder in EU 2003-2005
Table 9-27 Balance Sheet of Skimmed Powder in EU 2003-2005
Table 9-28 Balance Sheet of Cow Milk in India
Table 9-29 Balance Sheet of Butter in India
Table 9-30 Balance Sheet of Skimmed Powder in India

Figure
Figure 1-1 Growing Trend of Dairy Cattle Inventory 1995 -2005
Figure 1-2 Growing Trend of Cow Milk Production 1995-2005
Figure 1-3 Proportion of Milk Output of Main Producing Provinces in National Total, First 3 Quarters of 2005
Figure 2-1 Proportion of Cow Milk Production of Main Provinces in the Nation 2002-2005
Figure 2-2 Liquid Milk Production and Growth 1999-2005
Figure 2-3 Monthly Trend of Liquid Milk Production 2001-2005
Figure 2-4 Regional Layout of Liquid Milk Production 2003-2005
Figure 2-5 Structural Changes of Liquid Milk 1999-2005
Figure 2-6 Output and Growth of Solid Dairy Products 1999-2005
Figure 2-7 Monthly Trend of Output of Solid Dairy Products 2001-2005
Figure 2-8 Regional Layout of Output of Solid Dairy Products in 2003
Figure 2-9 Regional Layout of Output of Solid Dairy Products in 2005
Figure 2-10 Structure of Solid Dairy Products 1999-2003
Figure 2-11 Changes of Milk Powder Structure 1999-2004
Figure 3-1 Trend of Imported Volume of Dairy Products 1999-2005

Figure 3-2 Structural Comparison of Imported Volume and Value of Dairy Products
Figure 3-3 Trend of Importation Price of Dairy Products 1999-2005
Figure 3-4 Changes of Proportion of Main Supplying Countries of Dairy Products to China 2000-2005
Figure 3-5 Fluctuations of Monthly Import of Dairy Products in 2004 (volume)
Figure 3-6 Trend of Milk Powder Import 2002-2005 (volume)
Figure 3-7 Trend of Import Structure of Milk Powder 2002-2005 (volume)
Figure 3-8 Trend of Import of Whole Powder Containing Added Sugar 2002-2005 (volume)
Figure 3-9 Trend of Import of Whole Powder Not Containing Added Sugar 2002-2005 (volume)
Figure 3-10 Trend of Skimmed Powder Import 2002-2005 (volume)
Figure 3-11 Proportion Trend of Different Brands of Milk Powder Imported from New Zealand in National Total 2002-2005
Figure 3-12 Structural Trend of Milk Powder Imported from New Zealand 2002-2005
Figure 3-13 Main Supplier Countries of Imported Skimmed Powder 2002-2005
Figure 3-14 Regional Flow of Imported Skimmed Powder 2002-2005
Figure 3-15 Flow Trend of Imported Skimmed Powder of Main Regions 2002-2005

Figure 3-16 Flow Trend of Imported Whole Powder of Main Regions 2002-2005
Figure 3-17 Regional Flow of Imported Whole Powder Not Containing Added Sugar 2002-2005
Figure 3-18 Flow Trend of Imported Whole Powder Not Containing Added Sugar of Main Regions 2002-2005
Figure 3-19 Regional Flow of Imported Whole Powder Containing Added Sugar 2002-2005
Figure 3-20 Flow Trend of Imported Whole Powder Containing Added Sugar of Main Regions 2002-2005
Figure 3-21Trend of Milk Powder Price Imported from New Zealand 2002-2005
Figure 3-22 Comparison of Skimmed Powder Price Imported from Main Countries in 2005
Figure 3-23 Trend of Importation Price of Skimmed Powder 2002-2005
Figure 3-24 Trend of Importation Price of Whole Powder Not Containing Added Sugar 2002-2005
Figure 3-25 Trend of Importation Price of Whole Powder Containing Added Sugar 2002-2005
Figure 3-26 Trend of Import Volume of Whey 2003-2005
Figure 3-27 Trend of Importation Price of Whey 2003-2005
Figure 3-28 Composition of Whey Supplier Counties 2003-2005
Figure 3-29 Regional Flow of Imported Whey 2003-2005
Figure 4-1 Per Capita Dairy Consumption and its Growth Rate of Urban Residents 1995-2005
Figure 4-2 Trend of Structural Changes of Per Capita Dairy Consumption of Chinese Residents 2000-2005
Figure 4-3 Growing Trend of Per Capita Fresh Dairy Consumption of Chinese Residents 2000-2005
Figure 4-4 Trend of Per Capita Powder and Yogurt Consumption of Chinese Residents 2000-2005
Figure 4-5 Top 10 Regions of Dairy Consumption in 2005
Figure 4-6 Trend of Price Changes of Cow Milk Market Price of Various Provinces: By Month, 2005

Figure 4-7 Trend of Liquid Milk Price of Different Packages in 2005
Figure 5-1 Changes of Production of Powder Brands 2003-2005
Figure 5-2 Proportion of Main Powder Brands in the Nation in 2005
Figure 5-3 Market Share of Main Pure Milk Brands in 2005
Figure 5-4 Changes of Market Shares of Pure Milk Brands in Late Two Years
Figure 5-5 Market Shares of Main Yogurt Brands in 2005
Figure 5-6 Changes of Market Shares of Main Yogurt Brands in Late Two Years
Figure 5-7 Market Share of Main Brands of Lactic Acid Bacteria Drinks in 2005
Figure 5-8 Changes of Market Shares of Main Brands of Lactic Acid Bacteria Drinks in Late Two Years
Figure 9-1 Trend of Dairy Products Price of Main Brands on International Market in Latest Few Years
Figure 9-2 Trend of Cow Milk Production Changes in Dairy Season in Australia 1996/97-2004/05
Figure 9-3 Trend of Structural Changes of Fresh Cow Milk and Dairy Products in Dairy Season in Australia 1996/97-2004/05
Figure 9-4 Trend of Production and Export Volume Changes of Butter in Dairy Season in Australia 1996/97-2004/05
Figure 9-5 Trend of Production and Export Volume Changes of Cheese in Dairy Season in Australia 1996/97-2004/05
Figure 9-6 Trend of Production and Export Volume Changes of Skimmed Powder in Dairy Season in Australia 1996/97-2004/05
Figure 9-7 Trend of Production and Export Volume Changes of Whole Powder in Dairy Season in Australia 1996/97-2004/05
Figure 9-8 Cheese Production in America: By Month, 2002-2005
Figure 9-9 Butter Production in America: By Month, 2002-2005
Figure 9-10 Skimmed Powder Production in America: By Month, 2002-2005
Figure 9-11 Whole Powder Production in America: By Month, 2002-2005
Figure 9-12 Whey Production in America: By Month, 2002-2005
Figure 9-13 Monthly Trend of Cheese Price in America in 2005
Figure 9-14 Monthly Trend of Cream Price in America in 2005
Figure 9-15 Monthly Trend of Skimmed Powder Price in America in 2005
Figure 9-16 Monthly Trend of Whey Price in America in 2005