Annual Publication, India-Telecoms, Mobile, Broadband and Forecasts, provides a comprehensive overview of the trends and developments in the telecommunications and converging media markets in India.
India without a doubt continues to be one of the most dynamic and fastest growing major telecom markets in the world. There was little evidence by mid-2009 that the global financial crisis was dampening growth in any significant way.
The mobile sector in particular continues its strong march forward. The country's mobile subscriber base has already grown from around 10 million in 2002 to 350 million by the start of 2009. A number of factors have been responsible for this amazing growth, including low tariffs, low handset prices and most notably a highly competitive market created by the government and the regulator. While GSM technology remains dominant, by early 2009 CDMA was still managing to hang on to a 25% market share
The total mobile market was expanding at an annual rate of close to 50% coming into 2009. All things considered the mobile industry should continue its present strong growth for the time being. On the somewhat contentious subject of 3G licences, the delays continued up to mid-2009, by which time the most recent roadblock, a dispute between the Department of Telecommunications and the Ministry of Finance over licence fees, appeared to be close to resolution. In the meantime the two state-owned operators BSNL and MTNL had made a start on rolling out their pilot 3G networks.
With fixed-line subscribers at slightly less than 38 million in early 2009, the market has witnessed a modest decline in that particular segment. Growth initially stalled in 2006 and fixed-line numbers are not expected to pick up again for some time. (It should be noted that in 2005 India's telecom regulator began counting fixed WLL services as'wireless' services and not as'wireline' meaning that they were absorbed into the mobile statistics and were not able to be separated out any longer as fixed services. This has caused some confusion in the reporting data.) The total telephone subscriber base (mobile and fixed) had passed 400 million by February 2009, as the number of subscribers was rose by an average of 12 million per month in the first half of the year.
Regulatory reform has been central to the development of India's telecoms market. Sweeping reforms by successive governments over the last decade have dramatically changed the nature of telecommunications in the country. In the meantime, the Telecom Regulatory Authority of India remains committed to further regulatory and structural reforms. The adoption of Unified Licensing, a change in the Access Deficit Charge regime, and the encouragement of increased infrastructure sharing, especially the towers for mobile networks, are all contributing to ongoing growth. Another important initiative has been the government's revised Foreign Direct Investment policy which increased the foreign ownership cap from 49% to 74%.
If anything it could be said that the regulation of the market has been overly enthusiastic; there are some signs that the market was starting to suffer from the complexity of the regulatory regime. Changing the regulation of the industry was certainly not easy with many observers initially being sceptical of the strategies adopted by the government. In parallel with the regulatory change process, there has been a continuing evolution of the market through a series of mergers and takeovers among the mobile operators that has resulted in welcome and productive consolidation. In the final analysis the so-called'licensing by circles' policy has been credited with establishing a highly competitive and healthy telecoms market. Initially the circles policy had been considered complex and unwieldy. But, with the assistance of a comparatively well regulated commercial environment, with plenty of growth potential and an increasingly open market, India is proving to be an attractive telecoms destination for foreign investment with a clear way forward to further growth.
One market segment that has continued to puzzle the observer is broadband Internet. Despite the obvious enthusiasm for Internet access to be found across the country, India's move into high-speed broadband has been noticeably sluggish. The number of dial-up Internet subscribers has been increasing in a healthy fashion over the years. Between 2003 and 2008, the total Internet subscriber base increased fourfold over that five year period. The question remained, however, where was the broadband? It is true that there have been a number of surges in growth over the years, but this has always been off a relatively low base. Despite a major jump in subscribers in 2008, by early 2009 broadband Internet penetration remained only 0.5%; and broadband services still only accounted for one third of the total Internet subscriber base, still in itself comparatively low. In other words, by early 2009 there were only around 6 million broadband subscribers in India out of a total of around 18 million Internet subscribers. In the meantime, somewhat paradoxically the overall level of Internet usage seems to be growing strongly, perhaps boosted by the widespread use of Internet cafes and other points of public online access. There were an estimated 90 million Internet users throughout the country by January 2009, representing a penetration rate of almost 9%.
Key highlights:
*The mobile market continues to move along its boom path; by early 2009, India had 350 million mobile subscribers.
*The mobile market continued to expand at an annual rate around 50% into 2008.
*GSM remains the dominant technology in the mobile market, but CDMA maintains a solid 25% market share.
*The number of broadband Internet subscribers in India is starting to become more significant, having increased by more than 70% in 2008, yet broadband subscribers still only comprised 0.5% of the population at the start of 2009.
*DSL, representing about 81% of the local broadband market, is steadily losing market share to other non-DSL broadband platforms.
*After experiencing a series of frustrating bureaucratic delays, India looks set to issue 3G licences in the second half of 2009.
*The MCIT's target of 500 million telephone subscribers (fixed and mobile) by 2010 looks likely to be exceeded by around 100 million.
India-key telecom parameters-2008-2009
Category | 2008 | 2009 (e) |
Fixed-line services: |
*Total subscribers | 37.9 million | 37.0 million |
*Annual growth (e) | -4% | -2% |
*Fixed-line penetration (population) | 3.2% | 3.1% |
*Fixed-line penetration (household) | 19% | 18% |
Broadband Internet: |
*Total subscribers | 5.4 million | 7.5 million |
*Annual growth | 74% | 40% |
*Broadband penetration (population) | 0.5% | 0.6% |
*Broadband penetration (household) | 3% | 4% |
Mobile services: |
*Total subscribers | 347 million | 510 million |
*Annual growth | 49% | 46% |
*Mobile penetration (population) | 30% | 43% |
| (Source: )
The following notes provide some background to our scenario forecasting methodology:
*This report includes what we term scenario forecasts. By describing long-range scenarios we identify a band within which we expect market growth to occur. The associated text describes what we see as the most likely growth trend within this band.
*The projections shown in the tables in this report are based on our own historical information, as well as on telecommunication sector statistics from official and non-official, national and international sources. We assume a possible deviation of 15-20% around this data.
*All statistics for GDP, revenue, etc are shown in US$, in order to maintain consistency within and between markets. At the same time we acknowledge that this can introduce some irregularities.
Data in this report is the latest available at the time of preparation and may not be for the current year.
Table of Contents
1. Key Statistics
1.1 Subscribers statistics
2. Telecommunications Market
2.1 Overview
2.2 Analysis: India and the global financial crisis-February 2009
2.3 Foreign investment
2.4 Universal service
3. Regulatory Environment
3.1 Overview
3.2 Telecommunications authorities
3.2.1 Ministry for Communications (MoC)
3.2.2 Department of Telecommunications (DoT)
3.2.3 Telecom Commission
3.2.4 Telecom Regulatory Authority of India (TRAI)
3.2.5 Telecom Dispute Settlement & Appellate Tribunal (TDSAT)
3.2.6 Telecom Sector Ombudsman (TSO)
3.3 Regulatory background
3.3.1 Licensing circles
3.3.2 Licence fees and taxes
3.4 National Telecom Policies
3.4.1 National Telecom Policies 1999 (NTP-99)
3.4.2 Addendum to NTP-99
3.4.3 Proposed new National Telecom Policy (NTP)
3.5 Foreign investment
3.6 Regulatory reforms
3.6.1 Overview
3.6.2 Access Deficit Charge (ADC)
3.6.3 Rural telephony
3.6.4 Quality of Service (QoS)
3.6.5 Local Loop Unbundling (LLU)
3.6.6 Conditional Access System (CAS)
3.7 Fixed-line (Basic Service) licences
3.7.1 Licensing guidelines
3.7.2 Development of basic service sector
3.7.3 National Long-Distance (NLD)
3.7.4 International Long-Distance (ILD)
3.7.5'Fixed' mobile
3.7.6 Basic service tariffs
3.7.7 Compensation
3.7.8 Other outcomes
3.8 Privatisation
3.8.1 VSNL (subsequently Tata Communications)
3.8.2 MTNL / BSNL
4. Fixed Network Operators in India
4.1 Overview of operators
4.1.1 Bharat Sanchar Nigam Limited (BSNL)
4.1.2 Bharti Airtel (formerly Bharti Telenet)
4.1.3 Hughes Telecom
4.1.4 Mahanagar Telephone Nigam Limited (MTNL)
4.1.5 Tata Teleservices Ltd
4.1.6 Reliance Infocomm
4.1.7 Shyam Telelink
4.1.8 BSNL/MTNL merger
4.2 International operators
4.2.1 Market development
4.2.2 Tata Communications (formerly VSNL)
4.2.3 Data Access
4.2.4 Bharti Telesonic
4.2.5 Reliance Communications
4.3 Other operators
5. Telecommunications Infrastructure
5.1 National infrastructure
5.1.1 Overview
5.1.2 Network development
5.1.3 National network
5.1.4 Infrastructure sharing
5.1.5 Rural and regional networks
5.1.6 Fibre optic cable projects
5.1.7 Wireless Local Loop (WLL)
5.2 International infrastructure
5.2.1 Overview
5.2.2 India-Pakistan
5.2.3 Submarine cable networks
5.2.4 Satellite communications
5.3 Infrastructure developments
5.3.1 Voice over Internet Protocol (VoIP)
5.3.2 IP networks
5.3.3 Next Generation Networks (NGNs)
6. Internet Market
6.1 Overview
6.1.1 Growth path
6.1.2 Growth issues
6.1.3 Service disruption
6.2 Regulatory issues
6.2.1 Internet policy
6.2.2 National Internet Exchange of India (NIXI)
6.2.3 Pricing
6.2.4 Domain names
6.2.5 Censorship and security
6.3 ISP market
6.3.1 Major ISPs
6.3.2 Internet telephony licences
7. Broadband Market
7.1 Overview
7.1.1 Broadband statistics
7.2 Market development
7.3 National Broadband Policy 2004
7.4 Personal computers
7.5 Cable modems
7.6 Digital Subscriber Line (DSL)
7.7 Wireless broadband
7.7.1 WiMAX
7.8 Satellite
7.8.1 DirecPC
7.8.2 Bharti Broadband Networks
7.8.3 Reliance broadband network
7.9 Broadband over Powerline (BPL)
7.10 Other broadband networks
8. Convergence
8.1 Overview
8.2 Triple play
8.3 Overview of broadcasting market
8.3.1 Statistical overview
8.3.2 Regulatory issues
8.4 Digital TV
8.4.1 Internet Protocol TV (IPTV)
8.4.2 Cable TV
8.4.3 Satellite TV
8.4.4 Major cable and pay TV operators
8.4.5 Free-to-Air TV
9. Mobile Communications
9.1 Overview of India's mobile market
9.1.1 Market background
9.1.2 Mobile statistics
9.1.3 Mobile market segments
9.1.4 Pricing and marketing strategies
9.2 Regulatory issues
9.2.1 New Telecommunications Policy-1999 (NTP-99)
9.2.2 Year 2009
9.2.3 Year 2008
9.2.4 Year 2007
9.2.5 Year 2006
9.2.6 Year 2005
9.2.7 Year 2004
9.3 Mobile technologies
9.3.1 Overview of mobile technologies used in India
9.3.2 GSM
9.3.3 CDMA
9.3.4 Third Generation (3G) mobile
9.4 Major mobile operators in India
9.4.1 Market overview
9.4.2 Market structure and earlier growth
9.4.3 Mergers and acquisitions
9.4.4 Competition
9.4.5 Subscriber statistics and market share
9.5 Overview of major mobile operators
9.5.1 Bharat Sanchar Nigam Ltd (BSNL)
9.5.2 Bharti Cellular Ltd (Airtel)
9.5.3 BPL Mobile
9.5.4 Vodafone Essar (formerly Hutchison Essar Telecom Ltd)
9.5.5 Aircel
9.5.6 Idea Cellular
9.5.7 Mahanagar Telephone Nigam Limited (MTNL)
9.5.8 Reliance Telecom Ltd
9.5.9 Spice Telecom Ltd
9.5.10 Virgin Mobile
9.5.11 New operators
9.6 Mobile voice services
9.6.1 Prepaid
9.6.2 Satellite mobile
9.7 Mobile data services
9.7.1 Market overview
9.7.2 Short Message Service (SMS)
9.7.3 Multimedia Messaging Service (MMS)
9.7.4 General Packet Radio Service (GPRS)
9.7.5 Push-to-Talk over Cellular (PoC)
9.7.6 Binary Runtime Environment for Wireless (BREW)
9.7.7 Enhanced Data for GSM Evolution (EDGE)
9.7.8 Mobile entertainment
9.7.9 i-mode
9.7.10 BlackBerry
9.7.11 Mobile TV
9.7.12 Mobile content
9.7.13 Handsets
10. Forecasts
10.1 Overview
10.2 Forecasts-fixed-line market to 2018
10.3 Forecasts-Internet services to 2018
10.4 Forecasts-mobile market to 2018
11. Glossary of Abbreviations
Table 1-Country statistics India-2009
Table 2-Telecom revenue and investment statistics-2007
Table 3-Telephone network statistics-2008
Table 4-Internet user statistics-2008
Table 5-Broadband statistics-2008
Table 6-Mobile statistics-2008
Table 7-National telecommunications authorities
Table 8-Fixed-line services versus mobile services and penetration-2008
Table 9-Foreign Direct Investment in telecom sector-2004-2008
Table 10-Telephone services to villages-2008
Table 11-Number of telecom licences issued, by category-2007-2008
Table 12-Fixed-line subscribers by operator-2007-2008
Table 13-Fixed-line subscribers and teledensity (historic)-1995-2005
Table 14-Fixed-line subscribers and teledensity-2005-2009
Table 15-Growth of VPT scheme-2001-2008
Table 16-PCOs in operation and market share by operator-2008
Table 17-Fixed WLL subscribers-2004-2006
Table 18-International undersea cable capacity-1997-2008
Table 19-Internet users-1995-2009
Table 20-Internet subscribers-1995-2009
Table 21-Leading ISPs, subscribers and market share-2008
Table 22-Broadband subscribers-2001-2009
Table 23-Broadband subscribers and households-2008
Table 24-Broadband subscribers by access and annual change-2008
Table 25-Broadband subscribers and market share by access-2008
Table 26-Broadband and Internet subscriber targets-2005; 2007; 2010
Table 27-Cable modem subscribers-2001-2009
Table 28-DSL subscribers-2001-2009
Table 29-Broadcasting market overview-2008
Table 30-Number of channels carried by cable operators-2007-2008
Table 31-Cable and TV households-1995-2008
Table 32-Total TV industry revenue-2000-2008
Table 33-Pay TV subscribers by technology-2002-2008
Table 34-Licensing of DTH service providers-September 2007
Table 35-Mobile subscribers and annual change-2006-2009
Table 36-Mobile subscribers (GSM and CDMA) and annual change-2002-2008
Table 37-GSM mobile subscribers and annual change-1997-2008
Table 38-WLL technology-based subscribers-June 2006
Table 39-Mobile services revenue-1996-2008; 2010; 2012
Table 40-Mobile ARPU (GSM and CDMA) and annual change-2005-2008
Table 41-Mobile subscribers and market share by region/circle-2008
Table 42-GSM mobile subscribers by region/circle-April 2009
Table 43-GSM ARPU-2004-2008
Table 44-GSM ARPU/month by region/circle, prepaid/postpaid/blended-2008
Table 45-GSM ARPU/month by operator grouping, prepaid/postpaid/blended-2008
Table 46-CDMA mobile subscribers by operator and market share-2008
Table 47-CDMA mobile ARPU/month by region/circle, prepaid/postpaid/blended-2008
Table 48-Total mobile subscribers (GSM & CDMA) by operator & market share-2008
Table 49-Mobile operators, subscribers and annual change-June 2008
Table 50-GSM mobile operators, subscribers & market share-2008
Table 51-CDMA mobile operators, subscribers & market share-2008
Table 52-Mobile monthly ARPU (GSM & CDMA), postpaid/prepaid-2008
Table 53-Mobile monthly ARPU (blended), selected operators-September 2007
Table 54-Monthly ARPU, mobile subscribers by technology, prepaid/postpaid/blended-2008
Table 55-Forecast fixed-line subscribers and penetration-lower forecast-2007-2008; 2013; 2018
Table 56-Forecast fixed-line subscribers and penetration-higher forecast-2007-2008; 2013; 2018
Table 57-Forecast Internet subscribers & penetration-lower forecast-2007-2008; 2013; 2018
Table 58-Forecast Internet subscribers & penetration-higher forecast-2007-2008; 2013; 2018
Table 59-Forecast mobile subscribers and penetration-lower forecast-2007-2008; 2013; 2018
Table 60-Forecast mobile subscribers and-higher forecast-2007-2008; 2013; 2018
Exhibit 1-Major telecommunications players
Exhibit 2-Fixed-line basic services by operator-2008
Exhibit 3-ISRO satellite network-May 2009
Exhibit 4-Broadcasting standard and major broadcasters
Exhibit 5-Information on FTA turned Pay and New Pay Channels-2006
Exhibit 6-Overview of major channels available to consumers in India
Exhibit 7-Operators issued DTH licences-2008
Exhibit 8-CDMA 3G commercial deployment in India
