Summary   
When reflecting upon the last decade; the rapid uptake of mobile technology must be highlighted as an outstanding phenomenon that has forever changed society. Despite the challenges of the current industry environment; mobile subscriber growth continues with the emerging markets leading the way. While the industry is coping with a number of key issues, including the economic downturn, saturation of developed markets and spectrum concerns-it is still expected that in 2011 there will be over 5 billion mobile subscribers worldwide.
Around the world the mobile industry is screaming out for more spectrum; the first countries are moving forward but others are still working on their spectrum plans. The industry, quite rightly, is asking their governments for clarification regarding their spectrum policies. There is good evidence that more spectrum is required if we want to make the most of all the new opportunities that mobile and wireless broadband technology have to offer our society and our economy.
In early 2010, 3G subscribers accounted for around 13% of all mobile subscribers worldwide and it is full steam ahead for one of the largest emerging markets-China, which is benefitting from huge investments in 3G network deployment. India also continues to work on 3G licensing arrangements despite the regulatory battles that have hindered development. The business case for 3G is building around the world and most 3G deployments now rollout smoothly in contrast to the many problems experienced in early years.
While the number of mobile subscribers continues to grow worldwide; the industry is still grappling with declining ARPU. The economic downturn is not the only factor driving down ARPU; the increasingly competitive market involving price wars and new service developments and the tendency for mobile subscriber growth to mainly come from the low-income emerging markets are all playing a part.
International roaming charges and mobile termination rates have dropped due to both competition and the introduction of regulations/price capping. As mobile operators search for new revenue streams, attention is turning to increasing mobile customers' usage of international roaming services, including mobile data roaming services.
Overall handset sales and mobile handset revenue were also in decline in early 2009 in the wake of the financial crisis. However by the end of Q3 2009 this decline in handset sales appeared to have stabilised and by Q4 2009 the industry actually recorded positive growth again. There is also evidence that sales of smart phones are growing despite handset sales overall being down. While Nokia has been losing market share in recent times; it still retains its dominant position as the leading handset manufacturer, followed by Samsung. Despite only being in the handset market for a couple of years, Apple's iPhone has also become popular and this was reflected in Apple's Q3 2009 operating profit.
To date, MVNOs have only had a significant presence in the developed markets of North America and Western Europe, which account for the majority of subscribers. However in the next couple of years, MVNOs are expected to continue emerging in the developing markets of Africa, the Middle East and parts of Asia Pacific. The MVNO market has also witnessed a shift away from traditional business models as operators and new market entrants' trial models based on niche markets including data services, music services, health services, luxury services and low price services (including the prepaid market).
The prepaid market has traditionally attracted consumers on lower or restricted budgets and there are a number of prepaid MVNOs successfully operating in this market. Prepaid plans have been heavily marketed as a way to save money in the economic downturn-and it appears to be working as consumers turn to its services as a way to cut costs. This is fuelling competition, resulting in an emerging new image for this sector as the differences between prepaid and postpaid service offerings fade. From a broader perspective, the prepaid model is still a huge success worldwide, particularly in the developing markets.
The much anticipated Fixed Mobile Convergence (FMC) is developing slower than many operators would have hoped. However enthusiasm for the potential of this technology remains and more and more we are seeing Unified Communications merge with FMC developments. Fixed Mobile Substitution (FMS) also continues to take place around the world as mobile operators seek to ensure this phenomenon continues.
This report provides valuable insights and analysis into the trends and developments taking place in the dynamic mobile communications sector. The report comprises global and regional statistics and information on mobile growth, including 3G and the prepaid market. Other key topics covered include global mobile handset development and growth, the progress of FMC and FMS and the global MVNO market. Valuable trends, supported by statistics, are provided for ARPU, mobile revenue, call charges, and Minutes of Use (MoU), as well as information on mobile termination, roaming and Mobile Number Portability (MNP). Information at a regional level is also provided for North America, Latin America, Europe, Middle East, Africa and Asia Pacific. Please note: Mobile broadband is covered in detail in a separate annual publication.
Market highlights:The resilient mobile industry is still growing despite the challenges and overall global mobile revenues are predicted to reach over $1 trillion around 2012. MVNO subscribers will account for around 2-3% of all mobile subscribers worldwide in 2010. Around the world there is a varying degree of how many minutes on average a mobile user spends per month-with Hong Kong and India having some of the highest usage in the world. Handset sales rebounded in Q4 2009, recording a positive growth of at least 10%..In 2010 there will be an estimated 3.5 billion prepaid subscribers worldwide with the majority of prepaid users residing in Asia Pacific.Number of prepaid subscribers worldwide-2008; 2010; 2012
Year | Approximate no. of prepaid subscribers (billion) |
2008 | 2.6 |
2010 (e) | 3.5 |
2012 (e) | 4.3 |
China is the world's largest mobile communications market.The Middle East contains some of the highest penetration rates in the world led by the UAE, which has passed the 200% mark. Growth rates remain astonishingly high in the light of these figures. Mobile market penetration in Africa is expected to pass 50% during 2010; at least seven countries have broken the 100% barrier.The wireless industry in North America continues to be one of the fastest growing markets in telecommunications, despite the economic downturn.Data in this report is the latest available at the time of preparation and may not be for the current year.

Table of Contents  
1. Global Mobile Market: Key Statistics, Growth and Trends
1.1 Global mobile market 2010-introduction
1.1.1 Mobile market 2010
1.2 Global and regional mobile subscriber statistics
1.2.1 Global mobile subscriber statistics
1.3 Mobile revenue, ARPU and call charge statistics
1.3.1 Mobile usage and call charges overview
1.3.2 Overview of global ARPU developments
1.3.3 Overview of historical global ARPU developments
1.3.4 Mobile revenue growth and CAPEX forecast
1.4 Global termination rate, roaming, Mobile Number Portability (MNP) trends
1.4.1 Introduction: mobile competition
1.4.2 Mobile Termination Rates
1.4.3 Roaming
1.4.4 Number Portability (NP)
1.4.5 Conclusion
1.5 Global prepaid market overview and trends
1.5.1 Prepaid mobile services
1.5.2 Key prepaid trends and developments
1.5.3 Worldwide prepaid subscribers
2. Global 3G Market
2.1 Global 3G market overview and trends
2.1.1 3G rolling out more rapidly
2.1.2 Brief case study: Hutchison
2.1.3 3G statistics and forecasts
2.1.4 Spotlight on Asia
2.1.5 Other developments
2.1.6 3G auctions-a popular way to assign spectrum
2.1.7 Hard realities of the mobile market
3. Global Mobile Handset Market
3.1 Global mobile handset market overview and trends
3.1.1 Historical handset market growth
3.1.2 Mobile handset statistics and forecasts
3.1.3 Smartphones
3.1.4 Handset supplier market shares
3.1.5 Other trends and developments
3.1.6 Safety and security issues
4. Mobile Virtual Network Operators (MVNO)
4.1 Global MVNO market overview and trends
4.1.1 MVNO market overview
4.1.2 Key MVNO markets
4.1.3 MVNO analysis
4.1.4 Market definitions
5. Fixed Mobile Convergence (FMC) And FMS
5.1 Global FMC and FMS market overview and trends
5.1.1 Introduction to Fixed Mobile Convergence
5.1.2 FMC market overview
5.1.3 Unified Communications
5.1.4 Fixed Mobile Substitution (FMS)
5.1.5 Conclusion: Impact of FMC and FMS on the market
6. Regional Overviews
6.1 North America
6.1.1 Wireless market overview
6.1.2 Wireless statistics
6.2 Latin America
6.2.1 Overview of Latin America's mobile market
6.2.2 Mobile statistics
6.3 Europe
6.3.1 European overview
6.3.2 Mobile subscribers and penetration
6.3.3 Revenue
6.3.4 ARPU
6.3.5 MNP
6.3.6 Prepaid market
6.3.7 3G market overview
6.3.8 MVNOs
6.3.9 Mobile handsets
6.4 Africa
6.4.1 Market overview
6.4.2 Mobile Statistics
6.4.3 Pan-African mobile operators
6.4.4 Mobile Virtual Network Operators (MVNO)
6.4.5 Mobile number portability (MNP)
6.4.6 Fixed-mobile convergence
6.4.7 Mobile handsets
6.4.8 Community phones
6.4.9 Prepaid cards
6.4.10 Call tariffs
6.4.11 Average Revenue per User (ARPU)
6.4.12 Mobile data services
6.4.13 3G
6.4.14 Market forecasts
6.5 Middle East
6.5.1 Overview
6.5.2 Mobile statistics
6.5.3 Market trends
6.6 Asia
6.6.1 Market overview
6.6.2 Regional statistics
6.6.3 Regional characteristics
6.6.4 China and India
6.6.5 Growth drivers
6.6.6 Third Generation (3G) services and beyond
6.7 Pacific Region
6.7.1 Australia
6.7.2 New Zealand
7. Glossary of Abbreviations
Table 1-Worldwide mobile subscribers and annual change-2000-2010
Table 2-Mobile subscribers by region-1993-2009
Table 3-China-mobile subscribers and annual change-1995-2009
Table 4-Worldwide 3G subscribers-2004-2010
Table 5-Indicative monthly mobile minutes of use-selected countries-2008-2009
Table 6-Comparison of charges for mobile services baskets-OECD countries-August 2008
Table 7-Comparison of cheapest charges for services basket-Finland; Sweden; Netherlands; Estonia; Norway; Denmark-April 2008
Table 8-Comparison of cheapest charges for services basket-Finland; Luxembourg; Sweden; Denmark; France; Great Britain-March 2007
Table 9-Rate per voice minute-selected developed countries-April 2008
Table 10-Comparison of most expensive charges for services basket-Switzerland; France; Ireland-April 2008
Table 11-Monthly mobile broadband contract costs-Eastern Europe; Asia Pacific; Africa; Americas-2007
Table 12-Worldwide average mobile monthly ARPU-2005-2010
Table 13-Indicative comparison of selected countries by monthly mobile ARPU-2009-2010
Table 14-India-mobile ARPU (GSM and CDMA) and annual change-2005-2008
Table 15-Mobinil blended monthly ARPU and AUPU-2002-2008
Table 16-Blended mobile ARPU-selected carriers-2008-2009
Table 17-Mobile data as a % of mobile revenues-leading developed countries-2008
Table 18-Mobile data mobile ARPU-selected carriers-2008-2009
Table 19-Worldwide mobile CAPEX-2007-2010
Table 20-Worldwide mobile services revenue-2008-2012
Table 21-Historical mobile termination rates by region-2005
Table 22 ¨CMobile termination rates in select countries-2009
Table 23-EU average mobile termination charges-2004-2008
Table 24-Worldwide mobile roaming revenue-2000; 2008; 2012
Table 25-European roaming charges-2007-2012
Table 26-Top ten European countries SMS roaming charges-2007
Table 27-Top ten European countries roaming charges per MB-Q3 2007
Table 28-Brazil-prepaid subscribers and prepaid market share-2002-2009
Table 29-India: mobile subscriber monthly ARPU-prepaid/postpaid/blended-2008
Table 30-Number of prepaid subscribers worldwide-2008; 2010; 2012
Table 31-Global prepaid subscribers as a percentage of total subscribers-2006; 2008; 2010
Table 32-Prepaid subscribers as a percentage of total subscribers in select countries-2008
Table 33-Prepaid service revenue worldwide-2005-2007
Table 34-3G subscribers worldwide-Hutchison Whampoa-2007-2009
Table 35-Growth of worldwide 3G subscribers-2004; 2006-2009; Q1 2010
Table 36-Worldwide market share of mobile subscribers by technology-Q1 2009
Table 37-Historical 3G spectrum licence cost per capita in select countries-2000-2001
Table 38-Worldwide mobile handset sales by quarter-2009-2010
Table 39-Worldwide mobile handset sales-2004-2009
Table 40-Mobile handset revenue worldwide-2002-2005; 2008-2009; 2012
Table 41-Worldwide smartphone device manufacturers by market share-Q3 2009
Table 42-Apple versus Nokia-handset division operating profit-2008-2009
Table 43-Worldwide smartphone operating systems by market share-2007-2008
Table 44-Handset supplier worldwide market share-top five suppliers-2008-2009
Table 45-Handset supplier worldwide market shares-1999-2008
Table 46-Worldwide MVNO subscribers-2005; 2009; 2010; 2013
Table 47-Worldwide MVNO services revenue-2001-2006; 2009; 2012
Table 48-Worldwide FMC subscribers-2006; 2008; 2010; 2013
Table 49-Indicative monthly mobile minutes of use-selected countries-2008; 2009
Table 50-Worldwide mobile phone penetration-2008-2009; 2011
Table 51-Year of fixed-line access peak in selected countries
Table 52-Wireless subscribers, penetration and annual change in North America-2010-2011
Table 53-Latin America-mobile subscribers and penetration rate-1998-2010
Table 54-European voice market in minutes-2000; 2005; 2010
Table 55-Annualised European voice and data market annual growth-2006-2011
Table 56 ¨CEU mobile subscribers and penetration rate-2004-2010
Table 57-Mobile (SIM) penetration by country in Europe-2008-2010
Table 58-European mobile operator revenue by source-2007-2010
Table 59-Average ARPU by country in select European countries-2006-2009
Table 60-Voice ARPU, non-voice ARPU, total mobile ARPU-Western Europe-2006; 2012
Table 61-Mobile numbers ported as % of total in select European countries-2008
Table 62-Cumulative total mobile numbers ported as % of total in select European countries-2006-2008
Table 63-Mobile numbers ported in select European countries-2006-2008
Table 64-Prepaid proportion of all subscribers in select European countries-2009
Table 65-Forecast Western Europe 3G subscribers-2005-2012
Table 66-Number of network operators, resellers and MVNOs in Europe-2000-2010
Table 67-Camera phone sales and forecasts in Europe-2005-2006; 2010
Table 68-European market shares of handset makers-2003-2008
Table 69-African mobile subscriber growth and penetration rates-1998-2010
Table 70-Top 10 African countries by subscribers-June 2009
Table 71-Top 10 African countries by annual growth-June 2009
Table 72-Mobile ARPU in selected African markets, MTN versus Zain-Q3 2009
Table 73-WCDMA subscribers in Africa by country-March 2009
Table 74-Mobile subscribers, annual change and penetration in the Middle East-June 2009
Table 75-Mobile subscribers in Asia-1990; 1995; 2000-2011
Table 76-Asia-mobile subscribers, annual change and penetration rate by country-June 2009
Table 77-Asia-mobile subscribers by country-2009-2010
Table 78-3G WCDMA subscriber growth in Asia-2004-2009
Table 79-Mobile subscribers by carrier in Australia-2006-2010
Table 80-3G mobile broadband subscribers by mobile operator in Australia-2007-2011
Table 81-Mobile services market revenue per major operator in Australia-2006-2012
Table 82-Mobile subscribers per operator in New Zealand-2005-2010
Table 83-Price comparison of prepaid services by operator in New Zealand-March 2010
Exhibit 1-Digital Dividend
Exhibit 2-Historical monthly mobile ARPU of top/bottom five carriers worldwide-Q3 2006
Exhibit 3-Roaming Regulation amendments in the EU-July 2009-2013
Exhibit 4-Number portability: key considerations
Exhibit 5-Examples of countries with mobile numbering plans
Exhibit 6-Growth drivers for prepaid mobiles in emerging markets
Exhibit 7-Examples of operators reporting high prepaid growth-2007-2009
Exhibit 8-Asia region 2.75G and 3G mobile service roll-outs-2008
Exhibit 9-Radio frequency spectrum
Exhibit 10-Examples of key MVNO customer segments
Exhibit 11-USA-major developments in the MVNO market-2007-2008
Exhibit 12-Variables that affect MVNO development
Exhibit 13-Comparative characteristics of an MVNO
Exhibit 14-FMC services
Exhibit 15-Growth inhibitors for FMC
Exhibit 16-Unlicensed Mobile Access (UMA)
Exhibit 17-Leading dual-mode mobile device manufacturers