Summary
This report covers developments in Europe-s cable and fibre broadband markets. The cable sector, having lost broadband market share to DSL alternatives, has recently been revitalised by the continuing consolidation among operators, particularly in Germany, which has enabled them to invest in network upgrades. Using DOCSIS 3.0 technology, Virgin Media in the UK and UPC in its several European markets provide the fastest copper-based services available. Their plans to upgrade to a 200Mb/s service by 2012 will place them on a par with Europe-s FttH providers. Cable broadband also continues to enjoy popularity in Central Eastern Europe and the Baltic region where a handful of major players have emerged following merger and acquisition activity. Cable is also popular in Russia, Bulgaria and Romania. Most major cablecos have also launched triple play offerings.
Europe-s fibre market has out-performed cable and DSL in terms of growth since 2007, yet the region still lags behind Asia and the USA. Most of the growth in FttH is based in only a few countries, while more than half of all connections are managed by only five operators. The rest of the region lags far behind, and new-build activity-particularly in the ten new EU member states (Slovenia being the exception)-remains low. Yet stimulated by government policies and favourable regulatory regimes, new access network deployments are now centred on fibre. The financial factors which initially restricted deployments to densely populated areas will be partly overcome during the next few years as national governments and the EC allocate funds to improve broadband infrastructure. Regulated access models aimed at facilitating competition and reducing civil engineering costs will also result in faster growth in the fibre market. Within Eastern Europe significant FTTx networks have been deployed across the region, including Albania, Russia, Estonia and the Czech Republic. FTTx deployments have a bright future in the region in coming years given the lack of extensive fixed line infrastructure in many countries.
The countries covered in this report include: Albania, Austria, Belarus, Belgium, Bosnia-Herzegovina, Bulgaria, Croatia, Cyprus, Czech Republic, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, France, Germany, Hungary, Iceland, Ireland, Italy, Latvia, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Macedonia (FYROM), Malta, Moldova, Montenegro, Netherlands, Norway, Poland, Portugal, Romania, Russia, Serbia, Slovakia, Slovenia, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Ukraine and United Kingdom.
Key highlights:
France
France is among the top three countries in Europe for fibre deployment. Since 2005, central and municipal governments have been at the forefront in pushing a national fibre strategy. Much of the market-s success has been achieved by alternative operators, which in turn has stimulated France Telecom to adopt an aggressive fibre roll-out as well as promote equal network access among providers. The August 2008 Economic Modernisation Law (EML) included a number of provisions for network sharing, and forms a key component of France-s regulatory framework designed to achieve widespread fibre deployment. As a result, the major providers Numéricable, Orange and SFR have agreed to share fibre installations between themselves and open them to other operators. Given the regulatory provisions and operator co-operation, in coming years France will retain its position as a leading fibre nation both in terms of network deployment and in effective strategies.
The UK
The UK was comparatively slow to develop its fibre sector, but considerable changes are expected by 2012 as a newly adopted regulatory regime provides operators with guaranteed returns on investments, so stimulating the business case for developing network builds. BT-s NGN, providing hybrid VDSL/FttC to up to ten million households, is expected to be supplemented by up to one million households with FttH connections in a program costing up to ￡1.5 billion. The regulator-s approach of removing wholesale access regulatory barriers should stimulate fibre builds in coming years, and so propel the country to the forefront f fibre infrastructure in Europe.
The Netherlands
The Netherlands is one of Europe-s top markets for both cable and fibre. The incumbent KPN and its part-owned provider Reggefiber operate a wholesale access service through their joint venture Glashart. Some of the conditions required from the Dutch regulator and cartel authority include a guarantee that other telcos have non-discriminatory access to the network at a fixed wholesale rate. The Netherlands has also benefited from innovative municipal involvement in fibre roll-outs, particularly in Amsterdam and Rotterdam. The sector has also been characterised by the wide range of non-telco activity, including the direct involvement of construction companies, individuals digging their own trenches, real estate investors and pension funds. Given these collective efforts, The Netherlands has shown the rest of Europe than FttH can be developed through the initiative of players other than the major telcos and cabelcos.
Data in this report is the latest available at the time of preparation and may not be for the current year.
The following notes provide some background to our scenario forecasting methodology:
*This report includes what we term scenario forecasts. By describing long-range scenarios we identify a band within which we expect market growth to occur. The associated text describes what we see as the most likely growth trend within this band.
*The projections shown in the tables in this report are based on our own historical information, as well as on telecommunication sector statistics from official and non-official, national and international sources. We assume a possible deviation of 15-20% around this data.
*All statistics for GDP, revenue, etc are shown in US$, in order to maintain consistency within and between markets. At the same time we acknowledge that this can introduce some irregularities.
TABLE OF CONTENTS
1. FIBRE REGULATORY OVERVIEW 1
1.1 The need for fibre 1
1.1.1 Arguments for fibre
1.1.2 Supporting the triple play market
1.2 Regulating access 2
1.2.1 The EC-s strategy
1.2.1.1 Regulating municipalities
1.2.1.2 Regulating incumbents
1.3 Structural separation 4
1.3.1 Fibre networks
1.3.2 Regulating access
1.3.3 Operators- strategy
1.4 Examples of open access 6
1.4.1 France
1.4.2 Sweden
1.4.3 The Netherlands
2. ALBANIA 9
2.1 Fibre-to-the-Home (FttH) networks 9
2.1.1 Albanian Fibre Backbone (AFB)
3. AUSTRIA 10
3.1 FttH networks 10
3.2 Cable modems 10
3.2.1 UPC Austria
4. BELARUS 12
4.1 Cable modems 12
5. BELGIUM 13
5.1 Cable modems 13
5.1.1 Telenet
5.1.2 UPC Broadband
5.1.3 Interkabel
5.2 FttH networks 15
5.2.1 Digital Metropolis Antwerp
6. BOSNIA-HERZEGOVINA 16
6.1 Overview 16
7. BULGARIA 17
7.1 Cable 17
7.2 FttH networks 17
8. CROATIA 18
8.1 Cable modems 18
8.2 FttH networks 18
9. CYPRUS 19
9.1 Cable broadband 19
9.2 FttH networks 19
10. CZECH REPUBLIC 20
10.1 Cable modems 20
10.2 FttH networks 20
11. DENMARK 21
11.1 Cable modems 21
11.2 FttH networks 21
11.2.1 Community networks
12. ESTONIA 24
12.1 Cable modems 24
12.2 FttH networks 24
13. FINLAND 25
13.1 Cable modems 25
13.2 FttH networks 25
14. FRANCE 27
14.1 Cable modems 27
14.1.1 Cable network agreements
14.1.2 Cable consolidation
14.1.3 Numéricable
14.1.4 UPC France
14.2 FttH networks 29
14.2.1 Regulatory issues
14.2.1.1 Legislation 2008
14.2.2 Regional support
14.2.3 Local authorities
14.2.4 Fibre operators and projects
14.2.4.1 France Telecom
14.2.4.2 Iliad (Free)
14.2.4.3 SFR/neuf Cegetel
14.2.4.4 Numéricable
14.2.4.5 Municipal drive-Paris
14.2.4.6 Other municipal projects
14.2.4.7 The Pau Project
15. GERMANY 37
15.1 Cable modems 37
15.1.1 Cable market consolidation
15.1.2 Cable players
15.1.2.1 Kabel BW
15.1.2.2 Kabel Deutschland
15.1.2.3 Unitymedia
15.2 FttH networks 40
15.2.1 Deutsche Telekom
15.2.2 Other developments
15.2.2.1 Cologne
15.2.2.2 Hamburg
15.2.2.3 Schwerte
15.2.2.4 Munich
16. HUNGARY 42
16.1 Cable modems 42
16.2 FttH networks 42
17. ICELAND 43
17.1 FttH networks 43
17.1.1 Statstics
18. IRELAND 45
18.1 Cable modems 45
18.2 FttH networks 45
19. ITALY 47
19.1 Cable modems 47
19.2 FttH networks 47
19.2.1 Telecom Italia
19.2.2 FASTWEB
20. LATVIA 49
20.1 Cable modems 49
20.2 FttH networks 49
21. LITHUANIA 50
21.1 Cable modems 50
21.2 FttH networks 50
22. LUXEMBOURG 51
22.1 Cable modems 51
22.2 FttH networks 51
23. MACEDONIA (FYROM) 52
23.1 Overview 52
24. MALTA 53
24.1 Cable modems 53
25. MOLDOVA 54
25.1 Overview 54
26. MONTENEGRO 55
26.1 Overview 55
27. NETHERLANDS 56
27.1 Cable modems 56
27.1.1 Ziggo
27.1.2 UPC Nederland
27.2 FttH networks 58
27.2.1 Government support
27.2.1.1 Broadband Expert Group
27.2.1.1.1 FttH focus
27.2.1.2 Key findings and recommendations
27.2.2 Regulating fibre
27.2.3 Government, councils and telcos involved
27.2.3.1 Kenniswijk-Eindhoven Smart City Project
27.2.3.2 Nuenen and Helmond
27.2.3.3 Rotterdam
27.2.3.4 Amsterdam
27.2.3.5 Projects in 2008
27.2.3.6 Ethernet-to-the-Home (EttH)
28. NORWAY 65
28.1 Cable modems 65
28.2 FttH networks 65
29. POLAND 67
29.1 Cable modems 67
29.2 FttH networks 67
30. PORTUGAL 68
30.1 Cable modems 68
30.2 FttH networks 68
31. ROMANIA 70
31.1 Cable modems 70
31.2 FttH networks 70
32. RUSSIA 71
32.1 Cable modems 71
32.2 FttH networks 71
33. SERBIA 73
33.1 Cable broadband 73
33.1.1 Kosovo
34. SLOVAKIA 74
34.1 Cable modems 74
34.2 FttH networks 74
35. SLOVENIA 75
35.1 Cable modems 75
35.2 FttH networks 75
36. SPAIN 76
36.1 Cable modems 76
36.1.1 Statstics
36.1.2 ONO
36.2 FttH networks 78
36.2.1 Regulatory issues
36.2.2 Telefónica
36.2.3 Asturcón network
36.2.4 22@Barcelona project
37. SWEDEN 80
37.1 Cable 80
37.1.1 Com Hem
37.2 FttH networks 81
37.2.1 Overview
37.2.2 TeliaSonera
37.2.3 Regulating dark fibre
37.2.4 Bredbandsbolaget
37.2.5 PiteEnergi
38. SWITZERLAND 84
38.1 Cable modems 84
38.1.1 Cablecom
38.2 FttH networks 84
39. UKRAINE 86
39.1 Cable modems 86
39.2 FttH networks 86
40. UNITED KINGDOM 87
40.1 Cable modems 87
40.2 FttH networks 88
40.2.1 Costing fibre
40.2.2 Fibre access and Community Broadband Access networks
40.2.3 BT
40.2.4 Other developments
41. GLOSSARY OF ABBREVIATIONS 91
LIST OF TABLES
Table number: on page number:
Table 1-Free projections - Paris fibre ? 2006; 2008; 2010; 2012; 2014 7
Table 2-Forecast fibre subscribers-weaker and stronger scenarios in the Netherlands ? 2008 - 2011; 2017 8
Table 3-Fibre broadband subscribers in Austria-2007 - 2008 10
Table 4-UPC Austria broadband subscribers-2005 - 2007 11
Table 5-UPC Austria revenue-2005 - 2007 11
Table 6-Cable modem subscribers in Belgium-2000 - 2008 13
Table 7-Telenet broadband subscribers-2002 - 2008 13
Table 8-Telenet subscribers by sector-2008 14
Table 9-UPC Belgium subscriber data (historic)-2006 14
Table 10-FttH subscribers in Bulgaria-2007 17
Table 11-Cable subscribers in Cyprus-2007 19
Table 12-Broadband subscribers by access type in the Czech Republic-2007 20
Table 13-Cable broadband market shares by operator in Denmark-2004 - 2007 21
Table 14-Market share of cable broadband by data speed in Denmark-2006 - 2007 21
Table 15-Fibre broadband subscribers in Denmark-2005 - 2008 22
Table 16-Broadband coverage by technology in Denmark-2001; 2003; 2007 22
Table 17-Broadband subscribers by alternative technologies in Denmark-2005 - 2007 23
Table 18-Broadband subscribers by access type in Estonia-2007 24
Table 19-Cable modem subscribers in France-2000 - 2008 27
Table 20-Numéricable subscribers by type-2007 - 2008 28
Table 21-UPC France operating data (historic)-2005 29
Table 22-France Telecom fibre subscribers-2006 - 2008 33
Table 23-Free projections-Paris fibre ? 2006; 2008; 2010; 2012; 2014 34
Table 24-Cable subscribers in Germany-2000 - 2008 37
Table 25-Kabel BW subscribers-2007 - 2008 38
Table 26-Kabel Deutschland financial data-2007 - 2008 39
Table 27-Kabel Deutschland subscribers and annual change-June 2008 39
Table 28-Unitymedia subscribers-2006 - 2008 40
Table 29-Unitymedia financial data-2006 - 2008 40
Table 30-T-Kabel broadband subscribers-2004 - 2007 42
Table 31-FttH subscribers in Hungary-2007 42
Table 32-Total broadband subscribers and penetration rate in Iceland-2001 - 2007 43
Table 33-Broadband penetration by access type in Iceland-2004 - 2008 43
Table 34-Fibre subscribers in Iceland-2005 - 2007 43
Table 35-UPC Ireland subscribers-2005 - 2008 45
Table 36-UPC Ireland subscribers-2007 - 2008 45
Table 37-Fibre accesses in Italy-2004 - 2008 47
Table 38-Telecom Italia fibre accesses-2007 - 2010 47
Table 39-Telecom Italia fibre cabinet network-2008 - 2010 48
Table 40-FttH subscribers in Latvia-2007 49
Table 41-Broadband subscribers by access type in Lithuania-2007 50
Table 42-FttH subscribers in Luxembourg-January 2008 51
Table 43-Cable broadband penetration in Malta-2000 - 2008 53
Table 44-Broadband subscribers by access type and penetration rate in Moldova-2001 - 2007 54
Table 45-Cable modem subscribers in the Netherlands-2000 - 2008 56
Table 46-Ziggo financial data-2006 - 2007 57
Table 47-Ziggo operating and subscriber data-2006 - 2007 57
Table 48-UPC Nederland subscribers-2005 - 2008 58
Table 49-Total broadband subscribers (cable modem, xDSL, fibre) in the Netherlands-1999 - 2008 58
Table 50-FttH connections and subscribers in the Netherlands-2006 - 2008 59
Table 51-Planned FttH connections in the Netherlands-2007 - 2011 59
Table 52-Cable subscribers in Norway-1999 - 2008 65
Table 53-Get subscribers and operating statistics (historic)-2005 - 2006 65
Table 54-Fibre subscribers in Norway-2005 - 2008 66
Table 55-ZON Multimédia cable broadband subscribers-2004 - 2008 68
Table 56-Cable subscriptions in Serbia-2004 - 2007 73
Table 57-FttH subscribers in Slovakia-2007 74
Table 58-Broadband subscribers by access type in Slovenia-2007 75
Table 59-Cable modem subscribers in Spain-2000 - 2009 76
Table 60-Share of cable accesses in Spain-2005 - 2008 76
Table 61-Cable subscribers by operator in Spain-2007 - 2008 76
Table 62-Share of cable broadband revenue in Spain-2007 76
Table 63-ONO financial data-2006 - 2008 77
Table 64-ONO cable subscribers-2005 - 2008 77
Table 65-ONO subscribers by sector-2005 - 2008 77
Table 66-ONO broadband monthly ARPU-2006 - 2008 77
Table 67-Cable broadband subscribers in Sweden-2000 - 2008 80
Table 68-Com Hem subscriber statistics-2005 - 2008 80
Table 69-Com Hem financial data-2007 - 2008 81
Table 70-Fibre connections in Sweden-June 2008 82
Table 71-Bredbandsbolaget subscribers by sector-2004 - 2008 83
Table 72-Bredbandsbolaget financial data-2006 - 2008 83
Table 73-Cablecom operational data: home and subscriber statistics-2005 - 2008 84
Table 74-Virgin Media subscribers by sector-2007 - 2008 87
Table 75-Virgin Media ARPU-2007 - 2008 87
Table 76-Virgin Media broadband subscribers by speed of service-2007 - 2008 87
LIST OF EXHIBITS
Exhibit 1-Structural separation developments-2009 4
Exhibit 2-Overview of FttH and FttB 9
Exhibit 3-Plan of action and targets in the Netherlands-2003 - 2015 60
Exhibit 4-Estimated cost of fibre by deployment technology in the UK-2008 88
