Research Background
Chinese dairy industry has become more market-oriented, which is greatly influenced by the trend of international dairy market. In 2007, world dairy market changed a lot with energy price hitting a new level, such as petroleum, and strong demand for biological energy. Quantities of corn are changed to ethanol in major dairy producing countries, resulting in strained supply and rising price. Consequently, the surging corn price as the main feed stuff for cow caused breeding cow cost growth on a large margin and rising raw milk price. The dairy production and export subsidy abolishment in EU seriously influenced the production of raw milk and dairy products among EU members. A durative drought in Australia caused the decline of raw milk and dairy products and an excessive sloppy weather also influenced dairy production in New Zealand. Other government, i.e. India, Argentina and Brazil, carried out export restriction policies as to protect national economy. In addition, producing enterprises in the US and EU prefer the combination of cheese and whey to milk powder and butter, directly influencing the production of milk powder and butter. Internationally, supply for milk powder, especially SMP, whey powder declined with price growth. Domestically, under the influence of international market, export price of whey powder and milk powder as raw material increased by a large margin, resulting in increasing demand for domestic dairy material. In addition, in the advantage of price, international market pay great attention on Chinese milk power, causing a dramatic export growth. Recently, due to the purchasing price exceeding the breeding cost growth, benefit declined on year-on-year basis, farmers lost above 40% in the first half of 2007. In the second half of 2007, raw milk and dairy product surged on a large scale, resulting in a great pressure on dairy enterprises, profit hitting the lowest level among dairy processing enterprises. Dairy industry in China is witnessing a formidable change and a dramatic conformity. Considering the current situation, the central government put forward a new legislation Proposals on Promoting a Durative and Healthy Development in China Dairy Industry, which will bring significant influence to the future dairy industry in China.
This report analyzes dairy production, consumption, market price, basic situation of import and export, market competition, relevant hot topics, policy direction and impact, development of main dairy processing and packaging enterprises in China and the development of the international dairy industry in 2007, there is also a forecast for the development trend of the Chinese dairy industry in 2008.
This report is a joint product of the experts of the Dairy Department, Beijing Orient Agribusiness Consultants Ltd. These senior dairy analysts also make advice for relevant departments and associations, and keep a beneficial relationship with major dairy enterprises, relevant industry enterprises, which provide precious information and data for this report, assuring the veracity, authority and forward looking. This is a rare report which shall be of great value for dairy investment companies, producers, material suppliers, equipment suppliers and research institutes both at home and abroad to understand the development trend of the dairy industry, to make decisions on the positioning of the enterprise and to formulate development strategies.
Table of Contents
Section 1 Status of Dairy Industry in China, 2007
1.1 Raw Milk Production
1.2 Dairy Product Process
1.3 Dairy Product Trade
1.4 Dairy Product Consumption
1.5 Dairy Product Price
1.6 Dairy Industry Situation
1.7 Dairy Industry Conformity
1.8 Dairy Industry Policies
Section 2 Policy Environment of Dairy Industry in China, 2007
2.1 Overall Situation of Relevant Policies
2.2 Nanjing Dairy Enterprises Self-Discipline Announcement
2.3 Proposals on Promoting a Durative and Healthy Development in China Dairy Industry
2.4 Liquid Milk Mark and Label Supervisory Notification
2.5 Lagged Effect and Amendment of Relevant Policies
Section 3 Analysis of Production of Dairy Products & Raw Milk in China, 2007
3.1 Raw Milk Production
3.1.1 Overall Situation
3.1.2 Cow Inventory
3.1.3 Milk Yield
3.1.4 Regional Layout of Raw Milk
3.1.5 Procurement Price of Raw Milk
3.2 Production of Dairy Products
3.2.1 Production of Liquid Dairy
3.2.1.1 General Trend of Liquid Dairy Production
3.2.1.2 Regional Layout of Liquid Dairy Production
3.2.1.3 Composition of Liquid Dairy
3.2.2 Production of Solid Dairy Products
3.2.2.1 General Trend of Solid Dairy Products Production
3.2.2.2 Regional Layout of Solid Dairy Products Production
3.2.2.3 Production of Milk Powder
Section 4 Imports & Exports of Dairy Products in China, 2007
4.1 Overview of Imports of Dairy Products
4.1.1 Overall Situation of Import
4.1.2 Analysis of Import Structure
4.1.3 Analysis of Import Amount
4.1.4 Analysis of Import Price
4.2 Imports of Milk Powder
4.2.1 Import Amount
4.2.2 Import Source
4.2.3 Import Flow
4.2.4 Import Price
4.3 Imports of Whey Products
4.3.1 Import Amount
4.3.2 Import Source
4.3.3 Import Flow
4.3.4 Import Price
4.4 Imports of Milk Fat Products
4.4.1 Import Amount
4.4.2 Import Source
4.4.3 Import Price
4.5 Imports of Cheese
4.5.1 Import Amount
4.5.2 Import Source
4.5.3 Import Price
4.6 Imports of Fresh Milk Products
4.6.1 Import Amount
4.6.2 Import Source
4.6.3 Import Price
4.7 Imports of Yogurt
4.7.1 Import Amount
4.7.2 Import Source
4.7.3 Import Price
4.8 Exports of Dairy Products
4.8.1 Overall Situation of Export
4.8.2 Analysis of Export Structure
4.8.3 Analysis of Fresh Milk
4.8.4 Analysis of Milk Powder
Section 5 Dairy Consumption in China, 2007
5.1 Overall Situation of Dairy Product Consumption
5.2 Structure of Dairy Consumption by Urban Residents
5.3 Consumption Regions of Dairy Products
5.4 Retail Price of Dairy Products
5.4.1 Fresh Milk Price
5.4.2 Yogurt Price
5.4.3 Milk Powder Price
Section 6 Market Competitions in China Dairy Industry, 2007
6.1 Competition Features of Dairy Market
6.2 Competition Status of Milk Powder Market
6.2.1 Environment of Milk Powder Market
6.2.2 Market Share of Major Competitive Companies
6.2.3 Composition of Milk Powder and Price of Terminal Market
6.3 Competition Status of Liquid Milk Market
6.3.1 Competition Status of Pasteurized Milk Market
6.3.2 Competition Status of UHT Milk Market
6.3.3 Competition Status of Milk Beverage Market
Section 7 Analysis of Main Dairy Producers in China, 2007
7.1 Yili Group
7.1.1 Analysis of Business Revenue
7.1.2 Status in Market Competition
7.1.3 Investments
7.1.4 Prospect of Yili
7.2 Mengniu Group
7.2.1 Analysis of Business Revenue
7.2.2 Status in Market Competition
7.2.3 Prospect of Mengniu
7.3 Bright Dairy
7.3.1 Analysis of Business Revenue
7.3.2 Status in Market Competition
7.3.3 Investments
7.3.4 Prospect of Business Revenue of Bright Dairy
7.4 Sanlu Group
7.4.1 Analysis of Business Revenue
7.4.2 Investments
7.4.3 Prospect of Sanlu
7.5 Sanyuan Food
7.5.1 Analysis of Business Revenue
7.5.2 Status in Market Competition
7.5.3 Investments
7.5.4 Prospect of Sanyuan
7.6 Wondersun Dairy
7.6.1 Analysis of Business Revenue
7.6.2 Status in Market Competition
7.6.3 Investments
7.6.4 Prospect of Wondersun
7.7 Nanjing Dairy Group
7.7.1 Analysis of Business Revenue
7.7.2 Status in Market Competition
7.7.3 Investments
7.7.4 Prospect of Nanjing Dairy Group
7.8 Yinqiao Dairy
7.8.1 Analysis of Business Revenue
7.8.2 Status in Market Competition
7.8.3 Investments
7.8.4 Prospect of Yinqiao Dairy
7.9 New Hope Dairy
7.9.1 Analysis of Business Revenue
7.9.2 Investments
7.9.3 Prospect of New Hope Dairy
7.10 VV Dairy
7.10.1 Analysis of Business Revenue
7.10.2 Status in Market Competition
7.10.3 Investments
7.10.4 Prospect of VV Dairy
7.11 Nestle
7.11.1 Analysis of Business Revenue
7.11.2 Status in Market Competition
7.11.3 Prospect of Nestle
7.12 Dumex
7.12.1 Analysis of Business Revenue
7.12.2 Status in Market Competition
7.12.3 Investments
7.12.4 Prospect of Dumex
Section 8 Packaging Suppliers for Dairy Products in China, 2007
8.1 Tetra Pak
8.1.1 Major Business in China
8.1.2 Cooperation with Dairy Producers, Government and Relative Industrial Association
8.1.3 Prospect of Tetra Pak's Business in China
8.2 International Paper
8.2.1 Major Business in China
8.2.2 Cooperation with Dairy Producers
8.2.3 Prospect of International Paper's Business in China
Section 9 Analysis of Dairy Industry Development in China, 2007
9.1 Analysis of Dairy Industry Development Scale
9.2 Analysis of Profit-Generation Ability
9.3 Analysis of Losses Situation
9.3.1 Scale and Amount of Losses in Dairy Industry
9.3.2 Analysis of Loss Status of Dairy Enterprises of Different Scales
9.4 Concentration of Dairy Industry in China
9.4.1 Regional Layout of Dairy Enterprises
9.4.2 Analysis of Major Economic Index of Dairy Enterprises of Different Scales
Section 10 Development of International Dairy Industry, 2007
10.1 Development of International Dairy Industry, 2007
10.1.1 Overview
10.1.1.1 Milk and Dairy Product Production
10.1.1.2 Dairy Product Trade
10.1.1.3 International Dairy Product Price
10.1.2 Major Influential Factors in International Dairy Product Market, 2007
10.2 Analysis of International Dairy Markets of Major Dairy Producing and Trading Countries, 2007
10.2.1 Dairy Market in New Zealand, 2007
10.2.1.1 General Situation
10.2.1.2 Butter Market
10.2.1.3 Cheese Market
10.2.1.4 SMP Market
10.2.1.5 WMP Market
10.2.2 Dairy Market in Australia, 2007
10.2.2.1 General Situation
10.2.2.2 Butter Market
10.2.2.3 Cheese Market
10.2.2.4 SMP Market
10.2.1.5 WMP Market
10.2.3 Dairy Market in the US, 2007
10.2.3.1 General Situation
10.2.3.2 Raw Milk Market
10.2.3.3 Cheese Market
10.2.3.4 Whey Powder Market
10.2.3.5 SMP Market
10.2.3.6 Lactose Market
10.2.3.7 Butter Market
10.2.4 Dairy Market in the EU, 2007
10.2.4.1 General Situation
10.2.4.2 Raw Milk Market
10.2.4.3 Butter Market
10.2.4.4 Cheese Market
10.2.4.5 WMP Market
10.2.4.6 SMP Market
10.2.5 Dairy Market in India, 2007
10.2.5.1 General Situation
10.2.5.2 Consumption Situation
10.2.5.3 Trade Situation
10.2.5.4 Opportunity in Indian Dairy Market
Section 11 Outlook of Dairy Industrial Development of China, 2007
11.1 Prospect of Raw Milk Production
11.2 Prospect of Dairy Product Process
11.3 Prospect of Dairy Product Trade
11.4 Prospect of Prices of Raw Milk and Dairy Products
11.5 Prospect of Dairy Product Consumption
11.6 Prospect of Dairy Industrial Competition
Annex
Annex 1 Balance Sheet of Milk in China, 2006-2008
Annex 2 Balance Sheet of WMP Milk in China, 2006-2008
Annex 3 Comments on Ten Events of Chinese Dairy Industry, 2007
Tables
Table 1 Dairy Import and Export, 2007
Table 2 Per Capita Dairy Consumption by Urban Residents, 2007
Table 3 Average Prices of Various Dairy Products, 2005-2007
Table 4 Main Index of China Dairy Industry, 2005-2007
Table 5 Milk Production, Dairy Cattle Inventory and Growths, 1996-2007
Table 6 Trend of Raw Milk Procurement Price in China, 2007
Table 7 Outputs of Dairy Products of Various Places, 2007
Table 8 Sales of Infant Milk Powder, 2007
Table 9 Imports of Dairy Products by Varieties 2006-2007
Table 10 Per Capita Consumption of Urban Resident by Regions, 2005-2007
Table 11 Per Capita Consumption Cost of Urban Residents, 2005-2007
Table 12 Business Revenue of Yili Group, 2007
Table 13 Operation of Liquid Milk and Other Dairy Products in Yili Group, 2007
Table 14 Investment Program of Producing Base in Yili Group, 2007
Table 15 Operation Status of Bright Dairy, 2007
Table 16 Business Revenue and Profit of Mengniu Group, 2007
Table 17 Business Revenue of Sanlu Group, 2007
Table 18 Business Revenue of Sanyuan Food, 2007
Table 19 Business Revenue of Wandashan Group, 2007
Table 20 Business Revenue of Yinqiao Dairy, 2007
Table 21 Business Revenue of New Hope Group, 2007
Table 22 Business Revenue of VV Dairy, 2007
Table 23 Business Revenue of Nestle (China), 2007
Table 24 Business Revenue of Dumex (China), 2007
Table 25 Main Economic Index of Dairy Industry in China, 2001-2007
Table 26 Profit-Generation Ability Index of Dairy Industry in China, 2002-2007
Table 27 Development Ability of Dairy Industry in China, 2000-2007
Table 28 Major Economic Index of Dairy Enterprises of Different Scales
Table 29 Trend of Cow Inventory of Main Countries, 2001-2007
Table 30 Trend of Milk Yield of Main Countries, 2001-2007
Table 31 Production of Whole Milk Powder of Main Countries, 2007
Table 32 Production of Skimmed Milk Powder of Main Countries, 2007
Table 33 Production of Butter and Ghee of Main Countries, 2007
Table 34 Production of Butter and Ghee of Main Countries, 2007
Table 35 Production of Cheese of Main Countries, 2007
Table 36 Prospect of Production and Consumption of Milk & Dairy Products of Main Countries, 2007
Table 37 Balance Sheet of Liquid Dairy in New Zealand, 2006-2008
Table 38 Balance Sheet of Butter in New Zealand, 2006-2008
Table 39 Export Flow of Butter of New Zealand, 2002-2007
Table 40 Balance Sheet of Cheese in New Zealand, 2006-2008
Table 41 Export Flow of Cheese of New Zealand, 2002-2007
Table 42 Balance Sheet of Skimmed Milk Powder in New Zealand, 2006-2008
Table 43 Export Flow of Skimmed Milk Powder of New Zealand, 2002-2007
Table 44 Balance Sheet of Whole Milk Powder in New Zealand, 2006-2008
Table 45 Export Flow of Whole Milk Powder in New Zealand, 2002-2007
Table 46 Trend of Cow Inventory and Milk Yield in the US, 2005-2007
Table 47 Balance Sheet of Various Kinds of Milk in the EU, 2006-2008
Table 48 Balance Sheet of Butter in the EU, 2006-2008
Table 49 Balance Sheet of Cheese in the EU, 2006-2008
Table 50 Balance Sheet of Whole Milk Powder in the EU, 2006-2008
Table 51 Balance Sheet of Skimmed Milk Powder in the EU, 2006-2008
Table 52 Dairy Cattle Inventory and Cow Milk Output in America, 2005
Table 53 Balance Sheet of Various Kinds of Milk in the EU, 2003-2005
Table 54 Balance Sheet of Cheese in the EU, 2003-2005
Table 55 Balance Sheet of Butter in the EU, 2003-2005
Table 56 Balance Sheet of Whole Powder in the EU, 2003-2005
Table 57 Balance Sheet of Skimmed Powder in the EU, 2003-2005
Table 58 Balance Sheet of Various Kinds of Milk in India, 2006-2008
Table 59 Balance Sheet of Skimmed Powder in India, 2006-2008
Table 60 Balance Sheet of Butter in India, 2006-2008
Figures
Figure 1 Growth Trend of China Dairy Cattle Inventory, 1999-2007
Figure 2 Growth Trend of China Cow Milk Production, 1999 -2007
Figure 3 Increase Rate of Liquid Dairy Production (by month), 2004-2007
Figure 4 Increase Rate of Dairy Production on Year-on-year Basis (by month), 2004-2007
Figure 5 Outputs of Dairy Products, Liquid Milk and Solid Dairy Products, 2001-2007
Figure 6 Large Dairy Import Slid in 2007
Figure 7 Dairy Export and Growth Ratio of Milk Powder (by month), 2007
Figure 8 Per Capita Milk Consumption of Urban Residents, 2001-2007
Figure 9 Per Capita Dairy Consumption Expenditure of Urban Residents, 2001-2007
Figure 10 Dairy Cattle Inventory in Main Milk Producing Provinces, 2001-2007
Figure 11 Cow Milk Production in Main Milk Producing Provinces, 2001-2007
Figure 12 Production and Growth Rate of Liquid Dairy, 2001-2007
Figure 13 Liquid Dairy Production and Its Proportion to the Total, 1996-2007
Figure 14 Monthly Trend of Liquid Dairy Production, 2004-2007
Figure 15 Liquid Dairy Production of All Regions, 2001-2007
Figure 16 Regional Layout of Liquid Dairy Production, 2007
Figure 17 Liquid Dairy Production of Main Provinces, 2003-2007
Figure 18 Composition of Liquid Dairy, 2000-2007
Figure 19 Production and Growth Rate of Sterilized Dairy, 2000-2007
Figure 20 Production and Growth Rate of Pasteurized Dairy, 2000-2007
Figure 21 Production and Growth Rate of Yoghurt, 2000-2007
Figure 22 Solid Dairy Production and Proportion to Dairy Production, 1996-2007
Figure 23 Monthly Trend of Solid Dairy Production, 2001-2007
Figure 24 Solid Dairy Production of All Regions in China, 2000-2007
Figure 25 Analysis on Regions of Solid Dairy Production, 2000-2007
Figure 26 Solid Dairy Production of Main Provinces, 2003-2007
Figure 27 Milk Powder Production and Proportion to Solid Dairy Production, 1996-2007
Figure 28 Milk Powder Production and Proportion to Dairy Production, 1996-2007
Figure 29 Composition of Milk Powder Production, 1999-2007
Figure 30 WMP Production and Growth Rate, 2000-2007
Figure 31 Production and Growth Rate of WMP Containing Added Sugar, 2000-2007
Figure 32 Production and Growth Rate of Infant Formula Milk Powder, 2000-2007
Figure 33 SMP Production and Growth Rate, 2000-2007
Figure 34 Structure of Dairy Import Volume, 2001-2007
Figure 35 Structure of Dairy Import Value, 2001-2007
Figure 36 Proportion of Import Dairy of Original Countries, 2004-2007
Figure 37 Destination of Imported Dairy Products (by import value), 2007
Figure 38 Destination of Imported Dairy Products (by import volume), 2007
Figure 39 Trend of Import Volume of SMP (by month), 2003-2007
Figure 40 Trend of Import Value of SMP (by month), 2003-2007
Figure 41 Trend of Import Volume of WMP (by month), 2003-2007
Figure 42 Trend of Import Value of WMP (by month), 2003-2007
Figure 43 Layout of Original Countries of SMP Import, 2007
Figure 44 Destinations of Imported WMP, 2007
Figure 45 Trend of Import Volume and Value of Whey Products, 2003-2007
Figure 46 Monthly Trend of Whey Products Import, 2003-2007
Figure 47 Layout of Original Countries of Whey Products Import, 2004-2007
Figure 48 Layout of Imported Whey Products (by import volume), 2004-2007
Figure 49 Import Volume and Value of Butter and Butteroil, 2003-2007
Figure 50 Layout of Original Countries of Butter and Butteroil, 2007
Figure 51 Trend of Import Volume and Value of Cheese, 2003-2007
Figure 52 Layout of Original Countries of Cheese, 2007
Figure 53 Import Volume and Value of Fresh Dairy Products, 2003-2007
Figure 54 Layout of Original Countries of Fresh Dairy Products, 2006-2007
Figure 55 Trend of Import Volume and Value of Yoghurt, 2003-2007
Figure 56 Layout of Original Countries of Yoghurt Import, 2007
Figure 57 Structure of Dairy Products Imported from New Zealand, 2004-2007
Figure 58 Structure of Dairy Products Imported from America, 2004-2007
Figure 59 Structure of Dairy Products Imported from France, 2004-2007
Figure 60 Structure of Dairy Products Imported from Australia, 2004-2007
Figure 61 Export Structure of Dairy Products (by export volume), 2006-2007
Figure 62 Composition of Dairy Products Export (by export value), 2006-2007
Figure 63 Trend of Per Capita Fresh Dairy Consumption by Urban Residents, 2003-2007
Figure 64 Trend of Per Capita Consumption of Milk Powder and Yoghurt by Urban Residents, 2001-2007
Figure 65 Composition of Dairy Consumption Amount by Urban Residents, 2007
Figure 66 Composition of Dairy Consumption Expenditure by Urban Residents in North China, 2007
Figure 67 Composition of Dairy Consumption Expenditure by Urban Residents in Northeast, 2007
Figure 68 Composition of Dairy Consumption Expenditure by Urban Residents in East China, 2007
Figure 69 Composition of Dairy Consumption Expenditure by Urban Residents in Central & South China, 2007
Figure 70 Composition of Dairy Consumption Expenditure by Urban Residents in Southwest, 2007
Figure 71 Composition of Dairy Consumption Expenditure by Urban Residents in Northwest, 2007
Figure 72 Per Capita Dairy Consumption by Urban Residents of All Regions, 2006-2007
Figure 73 Per Capita Dairy Consumption Expenditure by Urban Residents, 2006-2007
Figure 74 Average Sale Price of Fresh Dairy Products in All Regions, 2001-2007
Figure 75 Average Sale Price of Yoghurt in All Regions, 2005-2007
Figure 76 Trend of Average Sale Price of Milk Powder in All Regions, 2005-2007
Figure 77 Production of Main Milk Powder Producing Enterprises, 2007
Figure 78 Comparison of Market Shares of Small Packaged Milk Powder Brands, 2007
Figure 79 Factory Price of Main Milk Powder Producing Enterprises, 2007
Figure 80 Composition of Milk Powder Price of Main Producing Enterprises, 2007
Figure 81 Comparison of Terminal Price of Different Milk Powder Brands, 2007
Figure 82 Market Shares of Main Liquid Milk Brands, 2006-2007
Figure 83 Trend of Market Shares of Main Yoghurt Brands, 2006-2007
Figure 84 Market Shares of Main Dairy Beverage Brands, 2006-2007
Figure 85 Profit Ratio of Sales Income of Dairy Industry, 2001-2007
Figure 86 Total Assets and Benefits of the Owners of Dairy Industry, 2001-2007
Figure 87 Growth Trend of Total Profit of Dairy Industry, 2002-2007
Figure 88 Ratio of Loss-incurring Enterprises in Dairy Industry, 2002-2007
Figure 89 Gross Loss Carry-forward in Dairy Industry, 2002-2007
Figure 90 Ratio of Loss-incurring Enterprises of Different Sizes, 2007
Figure 91 Proportion of Loss-incurring Enterprises of Different Sizes, 2007
Figure 92 Proportion of Loss Carry-forward of Different Sized Enterprises, 2007
Figure 93 Regional Layout of Dairy Enterprises, 2007
Figure 94 World Whole Milk Powder Prices Trend, 2005-2007
Figure 95 World Nonfat Dry Milk Prices Trend, 2005-2007
Figure 96 World Butter Prices Trend, 2005-2007
Figure 97 World Cheese Prices Trend, 2005-2007
Figure 98 Australian Milk Production Trend, 1997-2007
Figure 99 Australian Butter Production and Exports Trend,1997-2007
Figure 100 Australian Cheese Production and Exports Trend,1997-2007
Figure 101 Australian SMP Production and Exports Trend,1997-2007
Figure 102 Australian WMP Production and Exports Trend,1997-2007
Figure 103 American Total Cheese Production Trend, 2003-2007
Figure 104 American Cheddar Cheese Price Trend, 2006-2007
Figure 105 American Butter Production Trend, 2003-2007
Figure 106 American Butter Monthly Prices Trend, 2006-2007
Figure 107 American SMP Production Trend (by month), 2006-2007
Figure 108 American SMP Monthly Market Prices Trend, 2006-2007
Figure 109 American Whey Product Production Trend, 2003-2007
Figure 110 American Whey Product Monthly Market Prices Trend, 2006-2007
Figure 111 American Lactose Production Trend, 2003-2007
