Report Highlights
Petroleum as the most important energy and the most primary raw chemical material in the world today is in the upstream of many industries, and the downstream industry chain involved is long and wide, forming webs repeatedly and having a significant influence. In a backdrop when the financial crisis is moving toward the real economy, the petrochemical industry is one of the industries that receive a direct impact from the crisis and witness a fast spread of it.
The international crude oil market fluctuated significantly in 2008. Due to the impact of the financial crisis in the United States, international crude oil price suffered a "nose dive" after going up to historical highs. China as one of the two engines driving the growth of world economy has taken proactive steps to cope with the challenge by introducing ten measures aimed at further increasing domestic demand and promoting economic growth. The dilemma in which the price of refined oil is lower than the price of crude oil was especially prominent in 2008, oil refineries suffered serious losses, and the supply in domestic market is relatively surplus. Opportunities exist in crises. The sharp drop of international oil price has provided a good timing for China to launch its fuel tax reform that has been in deliberation for more than 10 years.
During Jan-Nov, 2008, the nationwide output of crude oil was 15.86 million tons, growing 4.9% year-on-year, 1 percentage point faster than previous month, and 3.9 percentage points faster than a year ago; the output of natural gas was 6.83 billion cubic meters, growing 16.3% year-on-year, 12.1 percentage points faster than previous month, and 0.1 percentage point slower than a year ago.
Following the introduction of "China Energy Status and Policies" and the implementation of "The Fuel Tax", "The Energy Law" will soon be introduced. With the creation of the National Petroleum Reserve Center, China's petroleum market is moving in a standard-based, law-based, and sustainable direction. But, factors such as the fluctuating oil price in the international market, the increased cost of oil prospecting, the opening of the refined oil market to the outside, and the intense competition both at home and abroad have increased the fluctuation and uncertainty of the petroleum market.
China's petroleum market as the pillar industry of the national economy will face unprecedented challenge in 2009. Amid the dramatic market change, the 2008-2009 Annual Report on the Development of China's Petroleum Industry released by us can help governments, domestic and international companies, investors, and industry insiders more accurately understand the development direction of the oil industry, seize the potential investment opportunities of the oil industry, and make proactive preparations for the changes in the future.
* More in-depth and detailed market research data: In accordance with the extensive basic information released by the State Statistics Bureau, the National Development and Reform Commission, the Ministry of Commerce, and China Petroleum and Chemical Industry Association etc. and based on the in-depth studies carried out by domestic and international oil industry, the Report has provided detailed analysis of the upstream, middle stream, and downstream links of the industry chain covering oil prospecting & extracting, oil refining, and oil sales, and has made forward-looking forecast of industry development
* More comprehensive and in-depth analysis of industry competitions: Apart from summarizing the performance of key enterprises from multiple dimensions including the landscape of market segments, competition strategy, and SWOT analysis, based on its profound understanding of the energy industry, we have commented on factors contributing to market success, and has revealed the competition landscape of China's petroleum industry in the future from multiple angles
* More scientific and comprehensive forecast for future growth: The Report has conducted modeling regression and expert verification in major market segments, analyzed related industry links, and presents valuable trend analysis and quantitative forecast result, and provided specific development strategies and recommendations for governments, enterprises, and investors
Table of Contents
Main Conclusions
Key Findings
I. Overview of the Global Petroleum Industry in 2008
(I) Status of Growth
1. Industry size
2. Industry structure
3. Resources map
4. Status quo of trading
(II) Basic Characteristics
1. Industry distribution
2. Competition characteristics
(III) Major Countries and Regions
1. OPEC: Influencing the world's oil price with output as the leverage
2. Russia: Policy adjustment to reflect its position as a major country in energy supply
3. USA: The biggest energy consumer and importer in the world
II. Overview of China's Petroleum Industry in 2008
(I) The Growth Environment
1. The policy environment
2. The economical environment
3. The social environment
4. The technological environment
(II) Status of Growth
1. Industry size
2. Industry structure
3. Industry investment
(III) Characteristics of Growth
1. Industry distribution
2. Competition characteristics
V. Forecast of Petroleum Industry, 2009-2011
(I) Influential Factors
1. Macro economy: Ensuring an eight percent growth is still possible after the worst tightening period
2. Exchange rate: The exchange rate of RMB basically remains stable and continues to maintain the strong momentum
3. Industry Investment: Loose currency policy and VAT transformation beneficial for investment growth
(II) Forecast of Industry Growth
1. Size
2. Structure
3. Price
4. Products
VI. Analysis of Trend of Petroleum Industry, 2009-2011
(I) Trend of production technology
(II) Trend of enterprise competition
1. The administrative monopoly in the oil industry is hard to be eliminated in a short time
2. Analysis of the impact of the existing pattern on the competition in the oil industry
3. Analysis of the impact of the existing pattern on the market performance of enterprises
4. Trend of industry competition
(III) Trend of Industry Growth
(IV) Trend of Related Industries
1. Analysis and forecast of providers
2. Analysis and forecast of purchasers
3. Analysis and forecast of Substituting Products
4. Analysis and forecast of potential competitors
VII. Recommendations
(I) For the Government
1. Ensure the safety of China's oil transportation by sea
2. Actively encourage private enterprises to participate in the construction of the national petroleum reserve system
3. Adjust the tariffs to cope with the impact in a grim market in 2009
4. Nurture major energy conglomerates
(II) For Enterprises
1. Put more emphasis on standard operation in a highly regulated environment
2. Put more emphasis on organic growth amid high inflations
3. Put more emphasis on publicity and communication amid high oil prices and rigorous control
4. Put more emphasis on risk management facing high risks
(III) For Investors
1. Investment opportunities
2. Investment risks
List of Tables
The Amount of Crude Oil Transported by Sea Worldwide, 1999-2008
Distribution of Oil Production Distribution in Different Regions of China, 2003-2008
Sales of Oil Products in China, 2003-2008
China's Oil Reserves and Their Regional Distribution
Statistic Table of China's Net Import of Crude Oil, 2003-2008
Output of Major Products in China's Petroleum and Chemical Industries, 2003-2008
Forecast of Crude Oil Demand, 2009-2011
Forecast of the Demand for Gasoline, Kerosene, and Diesel, 2009-2011
SWOT Analysis of China's State-owned Oil Giants
SWOT Analysis of China's Private Oil Enterprises
Major Events in China's Oil Industry in 2008
List of Figures
Oil Output in the World, 2003-2008
Distribution of the World's Oil Reserves
The World's Oil Consumption and Major Consuming Countries
Price Fluctuation in the International Oil Market, 2004-2008
Growth of Global Oil Demand, 1990-2008
Regional Distribution of Investment in the World's Oil Sector, 2004-2008
Variation of Oil Output in Major OPEC Countries and Regions, 2003-2008
Output of Crude Oil in China's Petroleum Sector, 1997-2008
Output of Refined Oil in China's Petroleum Sector, 1997-2008
