<h1>央行多措并举稳定节前流动性</h1>
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<span>2019-1-18 7:59:45</span>来源：<span>中商网撰写</span>作者：<span>焦海达</span>
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<li><b class="v2_content_ico04">导读：</b></li>
<li>央行多措并举稳定节前流动性</li>
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<li><b class="v2_content_ico05">关键字：</b></li>
<li>央行多措并举稳定节前流动性</li>
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<div class="over_x"><p style="padding-bottom: 0px; widows: 2; text-transform: none; background-color: rgb(255,255,255); font-style: normal; text-indent: 2em; margin: 10px 0px 0px; padding-left: 0px; letter-spacing: normal; padding-right: 0px; font-family: "Helvetica Neue", Helvetica, STHeiti, "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, Verdana, sans-serif; white-space: normal; orphans: 2; color: rgb(102,102,102); font-size: 16px; font-weight: 400; word-spacing: 0px; padding-top: 0px; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-color: initial">本周在实施降准的同时，央行重启公开市场操作，连续大力度投放流动性，有力平抑了税期等因素对短期流动性的影响。目前看，市场资金面正恢复均衡偏松格局，货币市场利率运行趋于平稳；后续预计央行将继续通过多种举措，对冲季节性、时点性因素影响，流动性有望平稳跨春节。<br style="padding-bottom: 0px; margin: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px" />
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<p style="padding-bottom: 0px; widows: 2; text-transform: none; background-color: rgb(255,255,255); font-style: normal; text-indent: 2em; margin: 10px 0px 0px; padding-left: 0px; letter-spacing: normal; padding-right: 0px; font-family: "Helvetica Neue", Helvetica, STHeiti, "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, Verdana, sans-serif; white-space: normal; orphans: 2; color: rgb(102,102,102); font-size: 16px; font-weight: 400; word-spacing: 0px; padding-top: 0px; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-color: initial">新年伊始，全面降准、定向中期借贷便利操作(TMLF)、普惠金融定向降准动态考核，央行出台一系列的操作安排让人眼花缭乱。本周央行又拿出了最拿手的公开市场操作。</p>
<p style="padding-bottom: 0px; widows: 2; text-transform: none; background-color: rgb(255,255,255); font-style: normal; text-indent: 2em; margin: 10px 0px 0px; padding-left: 0px; letter-spacing: normal; padding-right: 0px; font-family: "Helvetica Neue", Helvetica, STHeiti, "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, Verdana, sans-serif; white-space: normal; orphans: 2; color: rgb(102,102,102); font-size: 16px; font-weight: 400; word-spacing: 0px; padding-top: 0px; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-color: initial">1月14日，央行重启公开市场操作，当日开展两品种共1000亿元逆回购交易；15日，央行逆回购交易量进一步增至1800亿元；16日，央行以5700亿元的逆回购操作，改写了单次公开市场逆回购交易的历史纪录；17日，央行继续开展4000亿元逆回购操作。</p>
<p style="padding-bottom: 0px; widows: 2; text-transform: none; background-color: rgb(255,255,255); font-style: normal; text-indent: 2em; margin: 10px 0px 0px; padding-left: 0px; letter-spacing: normal; padding-right: 0px; font-family: "Helvetica Neue", Helvetica, STHeiti, "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, Verdana, sans-serif; white-space: normal; orphans: 2; color: rgb(102,102,102); font-size: 16px; font-weight: 400; word-spacing: 0px; padding-top: 0px; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-color: initial">本周前4日，央行已通过公开市场逆回购操作投放12500亿元资金，加上1月15日降准大约释放流动性7500亿元左右，央行短期集中释放流动性约2万亿元。这一流动性投放力度可谓相当之大，意图也很明确——集中对冲税期高峰的影响。</p>
<p style="padding-bottom: 0px; widows: 2; text-transform: none; background-color: rgb(255,255,255); font-style: normal; text-indent: 2em; margin: 10px 0px 0px; padding-left: 0px; letter-spacing: normal; padding-right: 0px; font-family: "Helvetica Neue", Helvetica, STHeiti, "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, Verdana, sans-serif; white-space: normal; orphans: 2; color: rgb(102,102,102); font-size: 16px; font-weight: 400; word-spacing: 0px; padding-top: 0px; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-color: initial">从历年规律看，1月份是税收大月。本周则处于1月份税收高峰期，税款集中清缴入库由此造成的流动性回笼效应较为明显。另外，本周还有3900亿元MLF和1100亿元央行逆回购到期，国债发行缴款也会耗用一部分流动性。</p>
<p style="padding-bottom: 0px; widows: 2; text-transform: none; background-color: rgb(255,255,255); font-style: normal; text-indent: 2em; margin: 10px 0px 0px; padding-left: 0px; letter-spacing: normal; padding-right: 0px; font-family: "Helvetica Neue", Helvetica, STHeiti, "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, Verdana, sans-serif; white-space: normal; orphans: 2; color: rgb(102,102,102); font-size: 16px; font-weight: 400; word-spacing: 0px; padding-top: 0px; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-color: initial">15日央行公告称，“从历年规律看，1月份是税收大月。目前已进入1月份税收高峰期，预计未来几日银行体系流动性总量下降较快。16日也称，目前仍处于税期，银行体系流动性总量下行较快。”</p>
<p style="padding-bottom: 0px; widows: 2; text-transform: none; background-color: rgb(255,255,255); font-style: normal; text-indent: 2em; margin: 10px 0px 0px; padding-left: 0px; letter-spacing: normal; padding-right: 0px; font-family: "Helvetica Neue", Helvetica, STHeiti, "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, Verdana, sans-serif; white-space: normal; orphans: 2; color: rgb(102,102,102); font-size: 16px; font-weight: 400; word-spacing: 0px; padding-top: 0px; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-color: initial">从货币市场来看，央行持续开展大力度的操作，有力填补了短期市场资金供求缺口，稳定了货币市场运行。据市场参与者反馈，目前市场资金面已恢复均衡偏松态势，融出相对旺盛，缺口填补不难，市场预期趋于稳定。</p>
<p style="padding-bottom: 0px; widows: 2; text-transform: none; background-color: rgb(255,255,255); font-style: normal; text-indent: 2em; margin: 10px 0px 0px; padding-left: 0px; letter-spacing: normal; padding-right: 0px; font-family: "Helvetica Neue", Helvetica, STHeiti, "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, Verdana, sans-serif; white-space: normal; orphans: 2; color: rgb(102,102,102); font-size: 16px; font-weight: 400; word-spacing: 0px; padding-top: 0px; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-color: initial">往后看，税期因素的影响有望逐渐减弱，但进入1月下旬，春节前现金投放的压力将开始增加，地方债发行提前启动也会推高财政库款，流动性管理仍面临一定的压力。不过，央行对此已有前瞻安排。央行已预告，将在1月中下旬实施TMLF和普惠金融定向降准，预计这两项将投放资金5000亿元左右。</p>
<p style="padding-bottom: 0px; widows: 2; text-transform: none; background-color: rgb(255,255,255); font-style: normal; text-indent: 2em; margin: 10px 0px 0px; padding-left: 0px; letter-spacing: normal; padding-right: 0px; font-family: "Helvetica Neue", Helvetica, STHeiti, "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, Verdana, sans-serif; white-space: normal; orphans: 2; color: rgb(102,102,102); font-size: 16px; font-weight: 400; word-spacing: 0px; padding-top: 0px; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-color: initial">值得注意的是，本周以来，央行多次开展逆回购操作，均搭配使用7天和28天期品种，且28天期交易量占比逐渐超过了7天期，目前28天期逆回购已可跨春节，有助于满足部分机构对跨节流动性支持。随着春节临近，央行可能还会重启14天逆回购操作。</p>
<p style="padding-bottom: 0px; widows: 2; text-transform: none; background-color: rgb(255,255,255); font-style: normal; text-indent: 2em; margin: 10px 0px 0px; padding-left: 0px; letter-spacing: normal; padding-right: 0px; font-family: "Helvetica Neue", Helvetica, STHeiti, "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, Verdana, sans-serif; white-space: normal; orphans: 2; color: rgb(102,102,102); font-size: 16px; font-weight: 400; word-spacing: 0px; padding-top: 0px; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-color: initial">（文章来源：中国证券报）</p>
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<p>(关键字：央行多措并举稳定节前流动性)</p></div>
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