<h1>德银警告:铁矿石价格将跌穿每吨70美元</h1>
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	<span>2017-3-10 8:43:07</span>来源:<span>产经</span>作者:<span></span>
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			<li><b class="v2_content_ico04">导读:</b></li>
			<li>德银警告:铁矿石价格将跌穿每吨70美元</li>
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			<li><b class="v2_content_ico05">关键字:</b></li>
			<li>德银 铁矿石</li>
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	<div class="over_x"><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">据巴伦周刊网站报道,<b>铁矿石</b>价格在隔夜交易中大幅下跌了</span><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt"><font face="Times New Roman">2.9%</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">,至每吨</span><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt"><font face="Times New Roman">87</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">美元。但即使是按当前的这一现货价格计算,铁矿石生产商也一样能赚到钱,这就意味着未来其产量很可能将再度增长。</span><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">据德意志银行称,如果铁矿石价格在每吨</span><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt"><font face="Times New Roman">90</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">美元,那么在市场当前供应的铁矿石中,仅有</span><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt"><font face="Times New Roman">1%</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">左右的供应商将会亏钱;如果价格在每吨</span><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt"><font face="Times New Roman">60</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">美元,也只有</span><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt"><font face="Times New Roman">14%</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">供应商将会亏钱;即便是价格下跌至每吨</span><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt"><font face="Times New Roman">40</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">美元,也仍仅有三分之一的供应商会面临亏损。</span><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">该行分析师</span><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt"><font face="Times New Roman">Paul Young</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">在一份研究报告中写道:</span><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">&ldquo;我们上一次在</span><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt"><font face="Times New Roman">2016</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">年中期对全球曲线进行的研究表明,在铁矿石价格为每吨</span><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt"><font face="Times New Roman">60</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">美元时,仅有</span><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt"><font face="Times New Roman">5%</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">的全球生产将面临现金流为负值的处境。随着外汇市场和原油价格在</span><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt"><font face="Times New Roman">2016</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">年下半年的反弹,现在我们估测有</span><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt"><font face="Times New Roman">14%</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">的供应商会在铁矿石价格在每吨</span><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt"><font face="Times New Roman">60</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">美元时亏钱。但是,现在的铁矿石价格正在回到每吨</span><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt"><font face="Times New Roman">90</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">美元。中国国内的产量现为</span><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt"><font face="Times New Roman">2.8</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">亿吨</span><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt"><font face="Times New Roman">/</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">年,高于</span><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt"><font face="Times New Roman">2016</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">年上半年</span><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt"><font face="Times New Roman">2.2</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">亿吨</span><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt"><font face="Times New Roman">/</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">年的平均值。另外,&lsquo;非传统供应商&rsquo;正在以</span><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt"><font face="Times New Roman">1.95</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">亿吨</span><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt"><font face="Times New Roman">/</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">年的规模向中国出口铁矿石,高于此前的</span><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt"><font face="Times New Roman">1.7</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">亿吨。另外,虽然中国的钢铁需求表现旺盛,但我们认为</span><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt"><font face="Times New Roman">2017</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">年中成本更低的铁矿石供应将令其价格在年中回落到每吨</span><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt"><font face="Times New Roman">60</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">美元到</span><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt"><font face="Times New Roman">70</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">美元。&rdquo;</span><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">在周四的股市交易中,必和必拓</span><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt"><font face="Times New Roman">(BHP)</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">股价大幅下跌</span><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt"><font face="Times New Roman">5%</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">,力拓集团</span><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt"><font face="Times New Roman">(RIO)</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">下跌</span><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt"><font face="Times New Roman">1.8%</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">。</span><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt"><font face="Times New Roman">Fortescue Metals(FMG.Australia)</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">隔夜下跌</span><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt"><font face="Times New Roman">3.7%</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">,巴西淡水河谷公司</span><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt"><font face="Times New Roman">(VALE)</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">隔夜下跌</span><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt"><font face="Times New Roman">4.7%</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">。</span><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p>(关键字:德银 铁矿石)</p></div>
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